VP Strategy & Operations @ Prescient AI | Helping omnichannel brands to optimize spend | Co-founder Don't VLOOKUP

I didn’t come up through marketing.

I came up through finance.

Investing, M&A, diligence across hundreds of omnichannel brands.

I then became an operator, managing and deploying budgets directly and making the pitch to finance for more. 

The same questions came up every time:

Where should the next dollar actually go? How can we scale profitably? 

Marketing was always the largest variable line-item that went chronically underutilized. 

ROAS looked great in decks.

Cash flow and lifetime value told a different story.

The real issue wasn’t growth.

It was efficiency of working dollars - marketing, inventory, and capital tied up in the wrong bets.

So teams default to decisions without a more forward-thinking lens: 

• Optimize to what could be tracked with clicks

• Undervalue upper-funnel channels

• Cut spend that *looked* inefficient

• Then wonder why demand fell apart weeks later

That gap is why I joined Prescient.

Most tools explain yesterday yet ignore the reality that conditions on the field are constantly changing.

We focus on how dollars actually move the business - across channels, over time, and beyond last-click.

Not perfect attribution.

Better decisions that break down the barriers between marketing and finance to invest with confidence.

Will Holtz

Fractional CFO : Scaling E-commerce Brands from 7 to 8 figures through Financial & Data Analytics : Husband & Father x4 : Former Semi-Pro Soccer Player : Lover of Olives

Hey! Thanks for visiting. I’m Jarrod Souza, Founder of CFO Expertise, a fractional CFO agency for 7-8 figure Ecommerce & D2C brands.

I’ve been a CFO for 15+ years working with big names like Michael Hyatt. 

Today, I work with 25+ Ecom brands as their fractional CFO. We don’t just crunch numbers…we connect marketing metrics to strategic financial performance, illuminating the road to your brand’s success.

As a founder, you know that navigating the financial landscape of your D2C brand is crucial for success. But what if you had a strategic partner who not only understood the numbers but also had a deep appreciation for the power of customer data and marketing?

Enter CFO Expertise.
I’ve always been fascinated by the power of customer data. I love diving into the non-financial metrics that drive success and using those insights to create actionable strategies.

Whether it’s holding ad agencies accountable or leveraging attribution software, we have the knowledge and connections to help you make informed decisions that fuel growth.

What truly sets us apart from other fractional financial firms is the ability to provide actionable context.
By tying together all the metrics that matter to your business, we create a comprehensive roadmap for your success. And my journey is as diverse as my skill set. 

As a former semi-pro soccer player who was called up to train with the LA Galaxy, I started a direct-mail magazine, worked in the oil-field services industry, and immersed myself in the world of Ecommerce. With experience establishing manufacturing relationships in Israel, Mexico, and China, I bring a global perspective to your brand.

But it’s not just about business. I’m also a family man who married my college sweetheart, adopted twins within four days of their birth and have two biological children. 

I’ve faced challenges head-on, from surviving a near-death experience on a water rope swing to working with prominent coaches like Michael Hyatt.

If you’re a founder who doesn’t need a full-time dedicated CFO but knows you need more than just a number-cruncher, we could be the strategic partner you’ve been looking for.

We will help you eliminate anxiety around cash flow, optimize your supply chain, and make data-driven decisions that propel your brand to new heights.

Ready to see if we’re a good fit for your growing Ecom brand?

Book a call & let’s chat: https://calendly.com/cfoexpertise/cfo-expertise-intro

Jarrod Souza

Founder: "Accountant vs. CFO—what's the difference for an Ecom brand?"
Jarrod: "One records the game. The other calls the plays."

Your accountant owns historical accuracy.
- Clean books
- Correct categorizations
- Tax compliance
- GAAP reporting
They make sure the past is right.

Your CFO owns forward-looking strategy.
- Capital allocation
- Growth modeling
- Cash flow forecasting
- Marketing efficiency (CAC, LTV, payback)
We decide where the next dollar goes.

Here’s where founders get stuck:

If your numbers are messy, you need reporting cleanup. 
- Accrual accounting. 
- Proper chart of accounts. 
- Real COGS.
- True contribution margin.

But if your numbers are clean yet growth is chaotic, you need capital allocation and growth modeling.
- How much can you spend on paid?
- What’s your max CAC?
- Can you afford that inventory PO?
- What does your 13-week cash forecast say?

That’s CFO work.

---

Accountants protect the downside.

CFOs engineer the upside.

Both matter. But they solve very different problems.

Know the difference so you don't overpay for bookkeeping or underinvest in strategy.

---

Are you tracking history or building the future?

♻️ Repost this so another founder doesn’t confuse bookkeeping with strategy.

P.S. If you’re a 7- to 8-figure founder unsure whether you need cleanup or growth modeling, book time with me and we’ll figure it out ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

CFO for 7-8 figure Ecommerce & D2C brands. Book a call & let’s talk finances.

What People Think Sales Is vs. What Sales Actually Is

Most people misunderstand sales.

(Thanks to Rahul Kr. jha for this post!)

They see the surface.
They don’t see the strategy.

Let’s break it down 👇

❌ What People Think Sales Is:

• Convincing people to buy
• Talking non-stop
• Pushing products
• Manipulating emotions
• “Jugaad” and pressure tactics
• Just hitting targets

Sales has a bad reputation because of bad selling.

✅ What Sales Actually Is:

• Listening more than talking
• Identifying real problems
• Offering the right solution
• Building long-term relationships
• Creating trust
• Delivering value consistently

Sales is not about forcing.

It’s about understanding.

💡 The Truth:

Customers don’t buy products.
They buy clarity.
They buy trust.
They buy confidence in YOU.

Great salespeople are not pushy.
They are patient.
They are strategic.
They are disciplined.

🔥 Real Sales Formula:

Ask → Listen → Understand → Add Value → Close with Confidence

That’s it.

If you’re in sales, remember:

You’re not selling a product.
You’re solving a problem.

And that changes everything.

🔔 Agree with this post? Follow me and Rahul Kr. jha for more Business advice.

Founder: "Should I use accrual now or wait until revenue hits a certain level?"

Jarrod: "If you carry inventory, you’re already late."

I get this question a lot from 6-, 7-, even 8-figure Ecommerce founders.

Here's what goes through my mind in these conversations:

Accrual accounting isn’t about size.
It’s about how your business actually works.

If you sell physical products, cash accounting is lying to you.

Example:
Buy $200K inventory on cash accounting, and it looks like you lost $200K that month.
When you sell through it later, margins look massive.

Neither month tells the real story.

Here's what waiting too long does:
- Distorts your gross margin. Inventory hits all at once instead of when it sells.
- Hides your true CAC because COGS isn’t matched to revenue.
- Creates tax surprises when profit “appears” on paper.
- Leads to bad decisions. Cutting ads when margins look thin or overspending when are inflated.

Inventory brands should be matching revenue with the cost of that product. Period.

That’s accrual.

---

You can’t afford blurry numbers.

I've seen profitable brands stall because they didn't realize margins were 8 points lower than they thought.

While others panic over “low cash” months that were actually healthy, just inventory-heavy.

If you’re holding inventory, this matters more than you think.

---

Are your numbers telling the truth?

♻️ Repost this for a founder who needs cleaner margins and clearer decisions.

P.S. If you’re unsure whether your accounting is helping or hurting your growth, let’s talk it through ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

If your financials can’t survive due diligence, you don’t own a real asset.

You own a risky job.

I’ve been on both sides of this.
Founder excited about a potential exit.
Buyer’s team comes in.

First request: financials.

Not Shopify screenshots.
Not a QuickBooks P&L printed on cash basis.
Not a spreadsheet your bookkeeper updates “when there’s time.”
Real financials.

Here’s where deals fall apart:
Revenue isn’t reconciled to the bank or payment processors.
COGS doesn’t include freight-in, tariffs, or 3PL fees.
Inventory counts don’t match the balance sheet.
Ad spend is buried in random expense accounts.
No clean contribution margin by channel.

So what happens?

Buyers lower valuation.
Investors discount projections.
Strategic partners walk.

Not because the brand is bad.
Because the numbers aren’t trustworthy.

Investor-ready financials require:

1. Clean accrual accounting
- Revenue recognized properly
- COGS matched to revenue
- Inventory reconciled monthly

2. Clear margin structure
- Revenue
- COGS (product, freight, duties)
- Gross profit
- Selling expenses (ads, processing, 3PL)
- Contribution margin
- Overhead
- Net profit

3. Channel-level visibility
- CAC by channel
- Blended vs new customer CAC
- LTV and payback period
- True acquisition cost (including agency + creative)

4. Monthly close discipline
- Books closed by the 10th
- Balance sheet reconciled
- KPI dashboard reviewed
- Cash flow forecast updated

---

Due diligence isn’t scary when you run your business like this every month.

It becomes a confirmation process, not a forensic investigation.

If you want 6–8x EBITDA someday, act like you’re selling next quarter.

That’s how real assets are built.

You can’t scale what you can’t defend.

Investor-ready financials turn chaos into enterprise value.

---

If someone asked for your data room tomorrow, would you feel confident?

♻️ Repost this so another founder doesn’t lose valuation over messy books.

P.S. If you're a 7-8 figure founder and you want your numbers to survive due diligence, get CFO support here ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

What Investor-Ready Financials Really Look Like

How to Calculate True Working Capital for an Inventory Brand

Your bank balance is lying to you.

Most DTC founders look at cash in the bank and think they’re safe.
You’re not.

If you sell physical products, working capital is the real scoreboard.

Here’s how I calculate true working capital for inventory brands:

1. Current Assets – Current Liabilities
- Current assets = cash + inventory + receivables
- Current liabilities = payables + credit cards + short-term debt
- The difference is your liquidity cushion

This tells me if your business can breathe.
But that’s just step one.

2. Inventory Days (How Long Cash Sits on a Shelf)
- Inventory Days = (Average Inventory ÷ COGS) × 365
- 30–60 days = healthy for most DTC
- 120+ days? Your cash is frozen
- Slow turns kill optionality

I’ve seen profitable brands choke because inventory was sitting for 6 months.

3. Payables Leverage (Using Vendor Terms Strategically)
- What are your payment terms? Net 30? 60? 90?
- Can you negotiate deposits lower?
- Are you timing payments with cash inflows?
- Strong brands use supplier terms to fund growth

This is how you finance inventory without debt.

---

Why does this matter more than your bank balance?

Because cash timing > profit.

You can be profitable on paper and still miss payroll.

Working capital tells you:
- When you can reorder
- When you can scale ads
- When you need a line of credit
- Whether growth is sustainable

Clarity here gives you confidence to scale.

---

How strong is your working capital position?

♻️ Repost for other founders who want to avoid a cash crunch.

P.S. If you need help calculating your true working capital and building a 13-week forecast around it, get CFO support here ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

How To Use AI To Pressure-Test Your Financial Forecast in 10 Minutes

Most D2C forecasts are just beautifully formatted guesses.

Here’s how I use AI to pressure-test projections before we make hiring, inventory, or ad spend decisions.

Step 1: Feed AI your core assumptions
- Revenue by month
- CAC by channel
- AOV and gross margin
- Fixed overhead

Then ask: “What happens if CAC increases 20% and CVR drops 10%?”
If your model breaks instantly, you don’t have a growth plan. You're just hoping.

Step 2: Run three scenarios
- Downside: Higher CAC, slower inventory turns, delayed receivables
- Base: Current trends continue
- Aggressive: Improved LTV, better email monetization, lower COGS

AI will surface sensitivity gaps fast. Especially around cash.

Step 3: Validate the assumptions
- Is your LTV real or blended fantasy?
- Are you including freight, fees, and agency costs in CAC?
- Does your forecast reflect accrual inventory timing?
- Are you modeling cash, not just P&L?

Most spreadsheets don’t fail because of math.
They fail because of unchecked assumptions.

Step 4: Stress test liquidity
Ask AI: “If we grow 30% in Q3, how much additional inventory cash do we need?”
This is where profitable brands die.
Growth eats up cash.

A 10-minute AI session can expose a 6-figure mistake before it happens.

---

If you’re running paid traffic, inventory, and payroll, you can’t afford blind spots.

Your forecast should challenge you.

So test assumptions. Examine cash timing, not just top-line growth.

Run the scenarios before the market does it for you.

---

Have you stress-tested your 2026 forecast yet?

♻️ Share this to help a founder avoid a cash crunch.

P.S. If you want help building a forecast that holds up under pressure, get CFO support here ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

Your bookkeeper is not your CFO. Here’s why that matters.

I see this mistake all the time in D2C.

Founders think because their books are “clean,” they’re financially dialed in.
They're not.

Here’s the difference:

1. Recording history
- Categorizes transactions correctly
- Reconciles bank accounts
- Closes the month
- Makes your CPA happy

That’s your bookkeeper’s job.

2. Interpreting the story behind the numbers
- Why did contribution margin drop 4%?
- Is CAC actually profitable after freight + agency fees?
- Can we afford to double ad spend next quarter?
- How much inventory can we buy without choking cash?

That’s CFO work.

One is backward-looking.
The other is forward-looking.

Your bookkeeper tells you what happened.
A CFO tells you what to do next.

In ecommerce, that difference is everything.
Because scaling isn’t about having accurate QuickBooks.

It’s about knowing:
- Your true acquisition cost
- Your max CAC based on LTV
- Your payback window
- Your cash position 90 days from now

---

I’ve worked with brands doing $3M, $10M, $25M+.

The common issue? They confuse organized data with strategic direction.

Clean books don’t protect margin, forecast cash, or hold your agency accountable.

Strategy does.

If you’re running a D2C brand, this matters more than you think.

Accurate numbers are just the starting line.

Real growth comes from interpretation and action.

---

Are you recording or strategizing?

♻️ Repost this for a founder who thinks clean books equal financial strategy.

P.S. If you want a CFO lens on your numbers—not just reports on what already happened—book a call with me ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

Your bookkeeper is not your CFO

How To Diagnose If Your Growth Is Actually Unprofitable

Revenue up. Cash down.

That’s usually not a marketing problem.
It’s a contribution problem.

Here's how to check if it's growth you can actually afford:

Step 1: Start with one new customer order.
Not blended ROAS. Not MER. One order.
Take your revenue. Then subtract:
- Product cost (include freight-in + tariffs)
- Pick/pack + shipping
- Payment processing
- Ad spend to acquire that customer (media + agency + creative)

What’s left?
If it’s negative, you didn’t acquire a customer. You bought revenue.

Step 2: Separate new vs returning customers.
Blended metrics hide acquisition weakness.
While returning customers make everything look healthier.
Then you have email flows propping up paid traffic mistakes.

I’ve seen brands celebrating a 3.0 blended ROAS...while losing money on every new customer order.
That’s not scale. That’s masking.

Step 3: Look at payback period.
How long until CAC is recovered in cash? 30 days? 60? 120+?
If you’re holding 3–4 months of inventory and payback is 90+ days…
Growth is a working capital squeeze.

Profitable on paper.
Stressed in reality.

Step 4: Pressure-test CAC.
If CPMs rise 15%, does contribution disappear? 
If discounts increase, does margin evaporate?
If small changes break the model, your growth isn’t durable.

That’s how brands hit $15M and feel broke.
They scaled volume. They didn’t scale the economics.

---

If we sat down and pulled one new customer order together, you’d see it fast.

Most stress doesn’t come from scaling. 

It comes from thin margins hiding in acquisition.

When payback drags, growth stops feeling exciting and starts feeling heavy.

The brands that scale calmly know their contribution cold.

Once that number is solid, decisions get a lot less emotional.

---

Do you know your true new-order contribution?

♻️ Repost this to help a founder stop scaling losses.

P.S. See if growth is actually profitable for your 7-8 figure brand. Book a call with me ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

How To Diagnose If Your Growth Is Actually Unprofitable

What does "CFO Expertise" stand for? 

You might hear "fractional CFO" and instantly think spreadsheets.
That’s not what we built.

Here’s what CFO Expertise really means in practice:

1. Clarity over complexity
- Clean financials you can actually understand.
- No jargon. No fluff. Just the truth.
- Decisions backed by numbers, not gut feel.

2. Operators, not observers
- We’ve run businesses, not just analyzed them.
- Strategy that works in the real world.
- Advice you can implement this month.

3. Finance + marketing + ops, together
- CAC, LTV, margins, and cash flow in one view.
- Holding agencies accountable with real data.
- Connecting marketplace, ads, email, and inventory.

4. Profit first, growth second
- Revenue doesn’t matter without contribution margin.
- Scaling only works when cash keeps up.
- Healthy growth beats fast growth every time.

5. Cash flow is king
- Inventory planned, not guessed.
- No more surprise cash crunches.

6. Truth over comfort
- We’ll tell you what’s broken.
- Even if it’s uncomfortable.
- Especially if it saves your business.

7. Built for Ecommerce founders
- Inventory brands, not service businesses.
- COGS, freight, tariffs, fulfillment, returns.
- This is our lane.

8. Partnership, not reports
- We sit in the trenches with you.
- Decisions made together, not handed off.

---

Founders don’t fail from lack of effort—they fail from lack of visibility.

Clean, useful financials show you how fast you can scale without killing cash.

They define your true CAC limits and expose whether inventory is fueling growth or draining it.

When timing and visibility are fixed, smarter decisions become obvious.

That's what I built CFO Expertise for.

---

Curious which value you’re missing?

♻️ Repost this if you know a founder who needs CFO-level clarity, not another dashboard.

P.S. If you want CFO-level thinking without hiring full-time, let's chat ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

Pickleball with the family on a Saturday afternoon.

No agenda.
No strategy session.
No notifications.
Just me, my wife, and the twins out on the court having fun together.

It's easy to let the weekends blur into the work week.

There's always another email.
Another system to build.
Another problem to solve.

But I've learned that some of the best things I do for my business happen when I'm not working at all.

Being present with your family isn't a break from the work.

It's the thing that makes the work worth doing in the first place.

---

If you're grinding through the weekend every weekend, I'd challenge you: 

Block off a few hours this Saturday.

Put the phone down. Go do something with your people.

You'll be surprised how much clarity comes from just being present.

---

What's your go-to way to unplug with your family?

♻️ If this hit home, share this reminder that it shouldn't all be hustle. Live and have fun, too! 

P.S. If you're a 7-8 figure founder who wants to scale without getting burnt out, you need CFO support. Let's chat ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

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Jarrod Souza

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The Battle

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