Tim Carden

Thoughtleader

The future of B2B belongs to companies that master systematic outbound.

We partner with high-ticket B2B companies to build predictable lead generation engines through cold email and LinkedIn outreach - data-driven campaigns that target the right people with personalized messaging that books meetings.

What makes us different:

1. Technology: Clay for enrichment, HeyReach for LinkedIn automation, multi-domain email infrastructure
2. Personalization: AI-powered message variations that avoid spam filters and pattern detection
3. Deliverability: Domain warming strategies and technical optimization for maximum inbox placement
4. Results: Every campaign tied to booked meetings and pipeline, not opens or clicks

We've engineered a system that identifies your ideal customers, reaches them with personalized messaging, and books qualified meetings predictably.

Our clients include:

• High-ticket B2B companies ($10K+ ACV)
• SaaS companies needing consistent pipeline
• Agencies and service providers selling premium offerings
• 7, 8, and 9-figure businesses ready to scale outbound

Interested?

Book a call with our team (link in featured section)

Co-Founder

Hey, I'm Tim, Co-Founder at Thoughtleader, and we solve the #1 problem killing B2B growth: empty sales pipelines.

We help high-ticket B2B companies flood their calendars with qualified meetings using systematic cold email and LinkedIn outreach - data-driven campaigns that target decision-makers and book meetings on autopilot.

We can help you if:

• You're a B2B founder/CEO who needs predictable pipeline NOW... We'll deliver qualified meetings within 2-4 weeks using proven outbound systems

• You're scaling a 7-9 figure business and tired of inconsistent lead flow... Our cold email + LinkedIn campaigns run 24/7, filling your calendar while you sleep

• You sell high-ticket solutions ($10K+ ACV) and need buyers with real authority and active need... We target the right people with personalized messaging that gets responses

Our approach:

• Clay for data enrichment and hyper-personalization
• HeyReach for LinkedIn automation at scale
• Multi-domain cold email infrastructure for maximum deliverability
• AI-powered message variations to avoid spam filters
• Systematic qualification to ensure meeting quality

We've cracked the code on B2B outbound that actually drives revenue. Predictable meetings, qualified prospects, scalable systems.

If you:

• Sell high-ticket B2B solutions (>$10k contracts)
• Need qualified meetings, not vanity metrics
• Are ready for predictable, scalable lead generation

Let's talk.

Book a call 👉 https://thoughtleader.typeform.com/workwithus?utm_source=linkedin

Or DM me directly and I'll show you exactly how we're getting these results.

We analyzed our cold email costs and found a $2,600/month inefficiency. Here is the exact infrastructure switch we made to fix it.

We stopped buying pre-warmed inboxes from Instantly.

Great tool, but the math for pre-warmed domains doesn't scale for us.

Here is the breakdown.

Instantly requires 5 inboxes per domain. To keep deliverability safe (under 60 emails/day per domain), you are capped at 12 emails per inbox.

You pay $50/domain to send 60 emails.

We switched to ZapMail.

They allow 3 inboxes per domain. We send 20 emails per inbox.

Same 60 emails/day output. But it costs $24 instead of $50.

At 100K emails/month, the difference is massive:

• Instantly pre-warmed: $3,000
• ZapMail generic: $1,400
• ZapMail custom: $400

That is $2,600 in monthly savings just by optimizing structure.

Here is our new playbook:

Day 1: Client signs. We launch immediately on ZapMail generic pre-warmed domains.

Week 1-4: We buy custom domains and warm them in the background.

Week 5: Pivot to custom on-brand domains.

We get the speed of pre-warmed inboxes without the inflated cost.

And for anyone worried about "generic" sender domains:

We book 20+ meetings a week using them. Prospects care about the offer, not the domain name.

Don't let infrastructure costs eat your margin. Run the math.

Co-Founder @ RevenueFlow. Filling calendars with qualified meetings for high-ticket B2B companies through cold email

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I built a custom lead database of 4,000 companies for pennies.
Most people are stuck paying $99/mo for limited export credits. Or they are manually copying data from Google Maps.

I just built a custom scraping engine in 15 minutes without writing a single line of code.

The "High Agency" Stack:

Cursor (The Builder): The AI code editor. It writes and runs the Python script.

1. Serper.dev (The Source): Scrapes Google Maps results (e.g., "Private Schools in Wyoming").
2. Firecrawl (The Scraper): Visits every website and turns it into clean Markdown.
3. OpenRouter (The Brain): Uses cheap LLMs to extract decision-makers from that Markdown.

The Workflow:

I opened Cursor and typed:

"I want to find private schools using Serper.dev. Then use Firecrawl to visit their sites, and OpenRouter to find the Principal's name."

Cursor planned the steps. Cursor wrote the code. Cursor fixed its own errors.

The Result: A CSV with 4,000 rows of enriched data, ready for Clay.

The barrier to entry isn't "Coding" anymore. It's curiosity.

If you can combine APIs, you can build anything.

How I pulled a list of 4,300 verified U.S. banks in 2 minutes without writing a single line of code.

Normally, getting needed data from an API means one of two things: Waiting days for an engineer to help or giving up and doing it manually.

Not anymore.

Here is the exact workflow I just used to get this done over a cup of coffee:

1. I signed up for the bank data API provider and got my key.
2. I downloaded their documentation.
3. I opened Cursor (the AI code editor).
4. I pasted the API key, the docs, and my plain English request into the chat.

That’s it.

Cursor read the docs, wrote the script, and ran it for me.

Two minutes later, I had a clean CSV file with 4,300 active U.S. banks, complete with website URLs.

No coding. No debugging. Just the data I needed, ready for enrichment in Clay.

The barrier between "technical" and "non-technical" is gone.

If you can clearly describe what you want, you can get it.

Stop saying "I can help your company find more customers"
It’s lazy. It’s generic. And it gets deleted.

Start saying: I can pitch your 10-week leadership accelerator to 2,000 CEOs and founders.

The difference in response rate is astronomical.

Why? Because you are taking their specific product and putting it directly into the copy. It proves you know who they are without doing gimmicky I saw you went to this university personalization.

Here is the exact 2-step workflow we are building right now to automate this at scale:

Step 1: The flagship column in Clay 

We are building an AI web scraper in Clay that visits a prospect's website with one goal:

• Find their flagship program, service, or product name.
• Return that exact name into a column in our table.

Now, instead of a generic pitch, our variable inserts their actual core offering into the sentence.

Step 2: The testimonial PS We are adding a second AI column that scrapes their site for customer testimonials.

If they have a glowing review from Chris the CEO about saving 50% on taxes, our email now ends with:

PS: saw Chris's testimonial about how you cut his tax costs by 50%. That's exactly the kind of leader we reach.

This isn't magic. It's just better data applied intelligently to copy.

Don't send generic emails. Use AI to find the specific details that make your offer a no-brainer.

If you want to see the exact prompt I used to get Claude to suggest these changes, let me know in the comments.

Manual filtering is a waste of human capital.

Clicking "Location," then "Industry," then "Headcount" for the 100th time is not high-leverage work.

The goal is to get the data into the enrichment table as fast as possible.

Here is the "Sourcing Waterfall" I use to keep my team efficient:


Level 1: Clay People Finder (The Default)

We already pay for the subscription.

The "Sculptor" feature allows you to type natural language queries like:

"B2B SaaS companies in Boston with 11-50 employees."

The AI automatically maps this to the correct filters.

You verify the output, press import, and you are done.


Level 2: Apollo via Cursor

If Clay doesn't have it, we go to the big database.

We connect via API (using Apify or RapidAPI) inside a Cursor workflow.

This handles volume better but requires slightly more setup than Level 1.


Level 3: Serper (Local Business)

If the target is offline (plumbers, gyms, restaurants), databases often fail.

We use Google Maps scrapers via Serper to find these.


Level 4: Recursive Search (The "Hard" List)

This is for "Lookalikes."

We query Google for "Top 10 competitors to [Company X]."

Then we take those 10 results and find their competitors.

This builds a massive, highly specific list from scratch.

The Lesson:

Don't over-engineer the scrape.

Start with the tool that speaks your language.

Only escalate to code when the easy button breaks.

I just scraped 2,000 leads from Apollo in 5 minutes. 
Total cost: Roughly $0. Lines of code written by me: 0.

I didn't use a complex enterprise tool. I used Cursor (AI) + RapidAPI.

Here is the workflow:

1. Find the data: Get a search URL from Apollo.
2. Find the pipe: Get an API key from RapidAPI (search "Apollo Scraper").
3. Command the AI: Tell Cursor, "Connect this API to this Search URL and give me a CSV."

If you hit an error? You don't call a developer. You screenshot the error, paste it back into Cursor, and say: "Fix this."

Why this matters: We are moving from an era of "Learning to Code" to an era of "High Agency Problem Solving."

If you can articulate the outcome (I want leads) and the inputs (Search URL + API Key), the AI builds the bridge.

Don't let "I'm not technical" be your excuse anymore.

I automated my entire cold email infrastructure in 15 minutes.
Buying inboxes, verifying settings, and managing warmups.
Here is the Self-Healing inbox workflow:

We just solved the biggest pain in cold email: The Ramp Up.

Buying pre-warmed inboxes is easy.

Safely transitioning them to full volume is hard.

The "Standard" Way:

• Buy 50 inboxes on Zapmail.
• Manually check creation dates.
• Set limit to 5. Wait a day.
• Set limit to 10. Wait a day.
• Set limit to 17.

That is 150 manual adjustments over 3 days.

We automated it with one script.

The Stack: Zapmail + Instantly + Cursor.

1. The Setup

Buy the pre-warmed inboxes on Zapmail.

Use Cursor to write a script that automatically exports them to Instantly and tags them "Zapmail Pre-Warmed."

No CSV exports. No manual entry.

2. The Ramp Up Logic

We wrote a simple script that runs every 24 hours.

It checks the "Creation Date" of every inbox with that specific tag.

• If Age = 0 Days -> Set Limit to 5.
• If Age = 1 Day -> Set Limit to 10.
• If Age = 2 Days -> Set Limit to 17.

3. The Self-Updating Documentation

I added a "Rules File" to the project.

Every time the AI learns a new API endpoint or a better workflow, it updates its own instructions.

The system gets smarter the more we use it.

You don't need to be a developer.

You just need to be tired of doing it manually.

How we turned a dead prospect list into 22,000 targeted leads in under 10 minutes. We had a list of 2,200 private schools. The goal was simple: find the decision-makers.

But our initial searches were dry.

The problem? We were using standard corporate language for a non-corporate niche. You won't find many "Chief Revenue Officers" at a K-12 private school.

We had to throw out the B2B playbook and learn their actual language.

Here is the iteration process we used in Clay to find the people:

1. The obvious titles. We searched for Principal, Head of School, and Assistant Principal. Result: ~1,800 prospects. (Okay, but poor coverage for 2,200 schools).

2. The department heads. We added Director of Admissions, Marketing, and Technology. Result: ~2,100 prospects. (Better, but still shallow).

3. The real decision makers. We stopped guessing and looked at actual school org charts. We added two huge titles: Executive Director and Superintendent.

Result: The list exploded to 22,000 prospects.

If your data enrichment isn't working, it’s rarely the tool's fault. It's usually because you don't know the target's specific job titles.

Don't force your language onto a niche industry. Learn theirs.

Why we buy 3x more email infrastructure than our clients actually need.

It seems wasteful. Why pay for 30,000 sending capacity if the client only has 10,000 leads?

Because deliverability is a game of margins.

If you only have "just enough" domains, you are forced to keep using them even when their reputation starts to crack. You grip the wheel tighter as you slide into the spam folder.

When you have 3x capacity, you have the luxury of rotation.

• Health score hits 98%? Rotate it out.
• Open rates dip for 2 days? Rotate it out.
• Need to double volume tomorrow? You have the runway.

We also cap every single domain at 40 sends per day. No exceptions.

Conservatism is the new aggression in cold email.

If you want to land in the primary inbox in 2024, you need to over-engineer your infrastructure.

The perfect lead list isn't bought. It's built.
But most sales ops teams struggle with the trade-off between Volume and Accuracy.

If you want high volume, the data is usually bad.

If you want high accuracy, the data is usually expensive.

The solution is not one tool. It is a "Waterfall" strategy.

We just ran a test on 10,000 leads.

Total cost: $40.

Here is the stack and the logic:

1. The "Free" Layer (Clay)

Always start here.

We use the Clay People Finder because it is already included in the subscription.

Max out your free/included credits first before paying for external calls.

2. The "Filter" Layer (Python + RapidAPI)

When you need raw volume (30k+ rows), use RapidAPI (Apollo).

The data comes back messy.

Instead of paying a tool to clean it, use a simple Python script to filter the list locally.

Why: You can run parallel analysis to process thousands of rows instantly without hitting API rate limits.

3. The "Deep Scrape" Layer (Apify)

This is the heavy hitter.

Apify acts like a real user. It mimics a browser, clicks through pages, and scrapes data that APIs often miss.

The Cost: ~$1 for 250 leads.

The Result: 10,000 highly accurate leads for $40.

The Workflow:

1. Check Clay for easy matches.
2. Pull the rest via RapidAPI.
3. Use Python to filter the noise.
4. Send the high-value targets to Apify for deep enrichment.

You don't need a $20k data budget.

You need a better workflow.

We realized we were burning money on simple classification tasks.

Using GPT-4o or even 4o-Mini to check if a lead is a "General Manager" is overkill.

It is like hiring a PhD to make coffee.

You don't need maximum intelligence for basic filtering. You just need basic comprehension.

So we moved our workflow from Clay's native OpenAI integration to OpenRouter.

The math is simple.

Native GPT-4o-Mini is cheap.

But models like Mistral or open-source 120b models via OpenRouter are 20% of that price.

When you are running 10,000 rows, that difference pays for your entire software stack.

Here is the workflow to set it up:

The Stack: Clay + OpenRouter + HTTP API

1. Get an OpenRouter API key
This gives you access to every model (Llama, Mistral, Qwen, etc.) with one credit balance.

2. Create a "Saved Enrichment" in Clay
Don't use the "AI" column. Use the "HTTP API" integration.

3. Configure the Request
Method: POST
URL: https://lnkd.in/eVSE2FNW
Headers: Authorization: Bearer [Your_Key]

4. Select the "Economy" Model
In the JSON body, set your model to something lightweight like `mistralai/mistral-nemo` or `liquid/lfm-40b`.

5. Prompt for JSON
Ask the model to return a structured JSON object so you can parse the answer easily in Clay.

The result?««

We get the exact same filtering accuracy.

We have access to models that aren't even listed in Clay yet.

And our API bill dropped by 5x.

You don't need to be technical to do this. You just need to stop paying the "convenience tax" on default settings.

Stop using Anthropic inside Clay. It is burning your credit balance for no reason. Here is how to switch to OpenRouter and cut costs by 80% (without losing quality):

The Problem:

Most people default to the "Smartest" model for every single column.

They use Claude or GPT-5 Mini for simple tasks like:

• Normalizing company names
• Formatting dates
• Cleaning up job titles
• Categorizing leads

This is like hiring a PhD to make coffee.

The Solution:

Use Open Source models via OpenRouter for any task that does not require the internet.

If you just need to format text or use internal logic, Open Source models (like Llama or Mistral) are just as good.

And they are significantly cheaper.

The Math:

• Anthropic/OpenAI Mini = Expensive for bulk ops
• Open Source via OpenRouter = 80% cheaper

The Workflow:

1. Open your Clay table
2. Click "Add Enrichment"
3. Select "OpenRouter" (instead of standard AI)
4. Choose a high-performance OSS model (like Llama 3 or Mistral)
5. Paste your prompt

The Rule of Thumb:

Does this column need to browse the web?

• Yes → Use GPT-5 Mini
• No → Use OpenRouter OSS

You get the exact same result.

But your credits last 5x longer.

I ran an accidental experiment that completely broke my beliefs about cold email infrastructure.

For years, the standard playbook was simple.

Buy a domain that looks like your main brand (e.g., getrevenueflow.com).

Warm it up for 3 weeks.

Launch campaigns.

But recently, our deliverability started tanking.

Replies were low. Open rates were inconsistent.

So we decided to test something radical.

We scrapped the on-brand domains entirely.

Instead, we bought "Generic Pre-Warmed" domains.

These are random domains, sent from random names, that have been warming up for 9-10 weeks.

The logic?

Deliverability is the only metric that matters.

If the email lands in the Primary inbox, you win. If it lands in Spam, the perfect offer doesn't exist.

We ran the test on 1,400 emails.

The results were outrageous.

4.2% reply rate (compared to our usual 1%).

19 sales opportunities generated.

A 5x spike in website traffic immediately after launch.

Why did this work?

1. The Warm-Up Period

Our standard domains get 3 weeks of warm-up. These generic ones get 10 weeks.

Google and Microsoft trust history. A 10-week-old domain with consistent traffic looks legitimate. A 3-week-old domain blasting volume looks suspicious.

2. Pattern Matching

When you buy 50 domains that all use the Founder’s name, AI spam filters catch on.

"Why is Tim sending 50,000 emails from 50 different URLs today?"

Generic domains use random names. There is no pattern to flag.

3. The "Trust" Fallacy

We assume prospects check the sender address meticulously.

They don’t.

They check the offer. If the offer is good, they reply. If they are curious, they click the link in your signature (which redirects to your real site).

Nobody cares if the email came from "John at GenericService.com" if the problem you solve is urgent.

The Operational Upside

Beyond the reply rate, this fixed our cash flow.

We no longer pay for "dormant capacity."

We don't have to buy domains and sit on them for a month while paying the monthly fee.

We treat domains like inventory.

Need to scale up? Buy pre-warmed domains instantly.

One burns out? Replace it instantly.

The Stack: Zapmail (for pre-warmed inventory) + Instantly (for sending).

Stop optimizing for "looking professional" in the headers.

Optimize for landing in the inbox.

Speed to lead is the highest leverage metric in sales. But drafting replies manually is a bottleneck. And fully autonomous AI often hallucinates or sounds robotic. The solution? 

"Human in the Loop" AI Agents.

Here is the exact workflow to automate 90% of your inbox management using Instantly.

The Stack: Instantly (Reply Agent) + Slack (Notifications).

1. The Setup

Go to AI Agents in Instantly and select "Human in the Loop".

Never use "Auto-Pilot" for sales. You cannot afford a hallucination sending the wrong pricing or a weekend meeting time.

You want the AI to draft the email, but you want final approval.

2. The "Brain" (Guidance)

Treat the "Guidance" section exactly like you are training a new sales rep.

Don't just say "be professional."

Be specific:
• "Suggest 3 times between 1-5 PM EST (Weekdays only)."
• "If they ask for pricing, refer to the attached PDF."
• "Keep replies under 50 words."

3. The Optimization Loop

When the AI drafts a reply, you get a Slack notification.

You open the inbox. The draft is waiting.

If it’s perfect? Click Send.
If it’s wrong? Edit it manually AND update the guidance.

Example: The AI suggested a Saturday meeting.
Fix: Add "Never suggest weekends" to the guidance doc.

In 2 weeks, your agent will be smarter than most junior SDRs.

The Result:
No more copy-pasting context.
No more "checking the calendar."
Just "Review, Approve, Send."

You move from "doing the work" to "managing the agent."

Seth Yakatan

Raising & Selling 📈 $1B+ Raised 💰 22 Companies Sold 🤝

Are you struggling to communicate your vision to the capital gatekeepers?

Are you exploring selling your business but don’t know anything about:
✘ Due diligence
✘ Term sheets
✘ Earnouts

Friend, you're lucky you found me...

I'm Seth Yakatan.

I have 30-odd years experience as a corporate finance professional.

My specialties are:
💰 Raising money
🤝 Selling companies

And I’m f**king good at it.

I’ve raised over $1B and sold 22 businesses.

My career has mostly been supporting small-cap and major corporations seeking capital to grow, or
to find strategic acquirers.

Most of these companies are in: 
— biotech
— cannabis
— pharmaceuticals
— DTC consumer goods

I’ve been on boards, taken companies public, gone up against multinational corporations, raised from VC and PE funds.

All of it. 
Many times over.
Whatever your problem is, I’ve seen it before.

But let me level with you:

What I REALLY love is helping people to get to the finish line.

Talking to entrepreneurs excites me.

But in my experience, entrepreneurs are mostly s**t at raising capital and selling companies.

** They just don’t understand investors **

And that’s where I come in.

Together, we workshop: 
✔ Your pitch
✔ Your deck
✔ Your strategy 

And help you raise the capital to GROW and SELL your business.

If you need this help—and almost every business does—send me a DM.

Like, now.

Don't lose another potential investor or acquirer with the wrong pitch.

Seth ✌️

Merchant Bank / Advisory / Family Office

Massachusetts might become the first state in history to un-legalize cannabis!

Wait, WHAT???

>> What’s Happening?

A coalition of anti-cannabis activists in Massachusetts claims it has submitted enough valid signatures to put a FULL REPEAL of adult-use legalization on the 2026 ballot. 

And if voters say yes the entire commercial recreational market disappears. 

POOF.

This would kill the adult-use market. Permanently.

Medical stays, everything else goes.

Massachusetts would be the first state to go backwards.

And the people behind it are confident.

>> Why This Matters?

If this passes:

— Investors rethink every legalized state overnight

— Opponents in other states launch copycat repeal efforts

— Capital markets freeze

— Expansion plans collapse

— Regulators panic and overcorrect

This would take cannabis policy back to the stone age and signal to the country that legalization is not an irreversible trend — it’s a political liability.

If Massachusetts falls, no state is safe.

This is the nightmare scenario nobody in the industry thought possible.

>> What I’m Watching?

Whether national groups FINALLY wake up and mobilize.

Which operators step up and which pretend it’s “someone else’s problem”.

Whether this becomes a 2026 wedge issue that spreads beyond Massachusetts.

How fast risk-averse capital exits the sector if momentum shifts.

—

If you’re in cannabis, this is not optional:

1. Support local advocacy groups in Massachusetts
2. Pressure trade groups to launch a coordinated response
3. Educate your customers, partners, and elected officials
4. Start preparing contingency plans — yes, REALLY

We talk a lot about federal reform.

But right now, the real fight is at the state level and the first battle could be a full repeal of legalization in a major market.

Eyes open. Voices loud.

TOGETHER!!

Cannabis is heading to the US SUPREME COURT!

On December 12 the court is meeting to decide whether they want to touch the third rail of American drug policy:

Is federal marijuana prohibition unconstitutional inside states that already legalized it?


>> What’s Happening?

A coalition of cannabis businesses (plus some very loud conservatives) filed a lawsuit arguing that:

The federal government can’t criminalize something that a state has fully legalized without violating the Commerce Clause.

Translation: If a State says “legal business,” the feds shouldn’t be allowed to say “felony” for exactly the same activity.

The Court has now received briefs, felt the heat and is set to meet on December 12 to decide whether to take the case.


>> Why This Matters?

This isn’t just a legal debate...it’s the chokehold that this $30+ billion industry is stuck in.

The federal government refuses to update laws written when people still thought space travel was a fad.

If SCOTUS takes the case, we finally get clarity.

If they deny it, we stay in the same insane limbo that says:

Cannabis companies are legal AND illegal…states are allowed to license behavior the feds say is criminal.

And the IRS still steals 70–80% of operator profits through 280E

Federalism, but make it dysfunctional.


>> What I’m Watching

Whether the Court ducks this (likely).

Whether conservative justices realize they can’t scream “states’ rights” for everything except cannabis.

Whether the industry finally gets the constitutional showdown we’ve needed since 2009.

But here’s the real kicker:

The Supreme Court isn’t deciding if cannabis should be legal.

They’re deciding if reality counts.

And if that doesn’t sum up U.S. drug policy, nothing does.

Well folks, I have to admit that I was WRONG… I know, SHOCKER 😱

About 3 months ago I put up a post on AYR Wellness.

I said RIP…

But suddenly, AYR has come back from the dead…

Last week AYR Wellness Inc. announced that it was going to initiate CCAA proceedings. 


>> What's Happening?

On November 17, core assets of AYR’s subsidiaries will be transitioned to a newly formed acquisition vehicle (NewCo) owned by certain AYR senior note holders.

Basically this means that the lenders are going to run the company to try to get a recovery.

This is the same thing we’ve seen with several other companies…


>> Why is it Relevant?

1. Note trend
2. See #1

Just another case of investors taking the keys and trying to operate…


>> What Am I Watching?

This is about the fourth version of this flavor, will see if it tastes any different.

This industry has now become an SOP for the ‘equitization of debt and operate’ strategy…

Grabbing popcorn….

Hit the Debt Wall Jokes in the comments please.

You want your 15 minutes of fame?

Then find me and my man Lance C. Lambert ✓ in VEGAS....

My friends at Fat Nugs Magazine have made the questionable decision of giving me a camera and a microphone (LOOK OUT!!!)

Fat Nugs Magazine  x PufCreativ event, Light Up Las Vegas, is going to be 🔥 

Me + Lance, badass activations, the food, infused beverages, live art, live music from John Shute's band, Bubala, the Faces of Cannabis, and I GOT A MIC!!!

Fat Nugs Magazine
John Shute, MBA
PufCreativ

Is Cali Sober a trend or data set?

Every few months the alcohol lobby tries to convince congress cannabis is some dangerous, fringe, counterculture indulgence.

This typically comes right after scientists show up and drop a truth bomb:

— When people use cannabis, they drink less alcohol.

Not theoretically. Not anecdotally.

In a controlled trial…with real adults…using real THC.

You can almost hear the Bud Light boardroom panic.


>> What’s Happening?

Brown University ran a clinical trial with 157 adults (ages 21–44) who both drink heavily and regularly use cannabis (≥2x/week)

Across three sessions, each participant smoked joints with:

Placebo THC / 3.1% THC / 7.2% THC

The results:

3.1% THC → Alcohol consumption dropped ~19%
7.2% THC → Alcohol consumption dropped ~27%

Reminder: This wasn’t a SURVEY. 

This was human behavior in real time under controlled conditions.


>> Why This Matters?

Controlled clinical DATA illustrates what the market has been screaming for YEARS:

Cannabis isn’t competing with tobacco…it’s competing with ALCOHOL.

And it’s WINNING.

No hangover/less consumption = lower cost/people want to feel better, not worse

This research is the academic validation of what retailers, bartenders, C-store operators, and everyone under 40 in LA already knows:

California Sober isn’t a vibe …it’s a market shift.


>> What I’m Watching

Alcohol companies pretending this isn’t happening while banning hemp by paying off Congress.

Regulators scrambling because alcohol tax revenue is about to lose its training wheels.

THC beverages eating share in bars, clubs, stadiums, and concerts as the on-premise unlock kicks in.

Where does it say go now ?

How about give me a Miller High-Life??

Long term value in c@nnabis ?

I am not sure where it comes from 
I am not sure it comes from pure retail (alone)

Whats coming ?
Maybe a system where you can get hemp anywhere...
Have to go to a dispensary for things over a certain level ?

You think the Farm Bill closures was random?
Not when you are selling 1000mg edibles on Beale Street...

Think about it....

Thanks to Alex DeFazio and The High Index for the spot..

Is the Sunshine State going GREEN? Or will DeSantis come back to haunt us all in 2026?

Florida Rec is coming back again, kids…

Smart & Safe Florida says they’ve gathered over one million signatures to put adult-use legalization on the 2026 ballot.

And they needed that buffer because a Florida judge just invalidated 200,000 of them over…get this…formatting changes.


>> What’s Happening?

Florida’s adult use effort is coming back with steam.

Forget the signature drama.

If Florida goes adult-use, the industry gets a once-in-a-decade reset button.


>> Why This Matters?

Florida would likely become the biggest cannabis market on earth.
→ Population. Tourism. Purchase patterns. Retail cadence. No state touches it.

The beverage category goes STRATOSPHERIC.
→ Florida is the perfect petri dish: heat, beaches, nightlife, stadiums, hospitality. If drinks are going to dominate anywhere, it’s here.

Seniors + wellness turn into a gold rush.
→ This demographic is already using medical — adult-use removes all friction.

Tourism becomes a revenue cheat code.
→ 140M+ visitors. A tiny participation rate = millions of transactions.

This is the closest thing the cannabis industry gets to “Day 1” economics again.


>> What I’m Watching

Who’s quietly building Florida infrastructure RIGHT NOW.

Which operators are locking in distribution, co-packing, and supply before the herd wakes up. 

Who upgrades their retail experience (medical menus won’t cut it in adult-use Florida).

Which MSOs understand this is the Super Bowl, not a policy story.

Here’s the truth:
If Florida flips, the companies who prepared early become giants, and everyone else gets eaten.

Thoughts?

Hit those comments….

Who keeps me bullish?

Wyld & Aaron Morris

In ANY other industry, THAT'S A ROLL-UP PLATFORM.

General Catalyst (CALL ME)

Thanks to the gents From the Weeds to the Clouds - Michael Krefman + Michael Peterson

Do you have a functioning company?

i.e. Are you generating CASH FLOW??

Then consider yourself SUCCESSFUL, because you are in the MINORITY
in c@nnabis.

So what advice do I give you....???

Well with 5 companies over $150M in revenue in receivership...

1. STAY IN IT
2. STAY IN IT
3. STAY IN IT!!!

And thanks to my friend Scott Greiper for moderating a great panel....

The 5 Stages of Grief: Cannabis Edition


Stage 1: Denial

For everyone: The initial shock and disbelief that loss has occurred, acting as a buffer against overwhelming emotions.

For us: The initial shock that prices are NOT going to stay high forever and act as a buffer against the mountain of debt raised.


Stage 2: Anger

For everyone: A natural reaction to loss, where one may feel frustration, resentment, or rage at the situation.

For us: Manifests in yelling at A/R collections, city counsel meetings, boardrooms, or in the comments on LinkedIn.


Stage 3: Bargaining

For everyone: Negotiate with fate or a higher power to undo the loss, often involving phrases like "If only..." or "What if...".

For us: “Well I can just SELL the license, not pay taxes, not pay suppliers, vendors, employees or investors and get my creditors to amend and extend, plus FEDERAL HAS TO come soon, right??”


Stage 4: Depression

For everyone: Feelings of sadness, despair, and hopelessness set in as the reality of the loss becomes clearer.

For us: This market SUCKS, this industry SUCKS, these people SUCK, this government SUCKS. 


Stage 5: Acceptance

For everyone: Reach a point where the loss is acknowledged and understood, and one begins to adapt to the new reality.

For us: Lower prices, market volatility, hope for “catalysts” and a maybe we never get a Federal “save”.

Plus, all this s**t I’m eating is making my stomach stronger!

Did this resonate with anyone??

Hit those comments.

Do you have a business ???

Or do you have a collection of assets which were compiled to exit...

Well if you have #2 you have a problem (no pun intended)

A greater fool must arrive, which does not seem to be showing up...

Time to integrate and operate

What's going to happen ???

Honestly not sure...

Felt like at times in 2025 we had momentum towards:
State-level interstate commerce compacts
Federal-leve change

In 2026?
Feels like we might be further than ever? 
What do you think ???

Thanks to Alex DeFazio and the crew from The High Index for this spot

Want to see me in a SUIT???

Well if you are Inside the Beltway today there is a CHANCE...

You'll find me in my clown suit, all dressed up for my crew at IgniteIt Cannabis.

See you today in the District for my photo opp.

Use my link and get in at a discount: https://lnkd.in/e45zHKrW

I Failed As An Odds Maker
And almost got run out of Vegas as a result !!!

What I Thought ??? 
I used to believe I could predict things. 
I thought outcomes were logical: 
Markets mature THEN prices stabilize 
Regulators see tax revenue AND regulation eases 
Consumers migrate to legal markets WHILE illicit fades 
Capital flows to efficiency LETTING good operators win 
None of that happened.

What I Learned ??? 
Regulation became politics: NOT economics 
Taxation became punishment: NOT policy 
Consumers followed availability: NOT governance 
And capital flowed to the loudest or biggest: NOT the best
So, I tried to be an odds maker and failed..

What Did I Learn ??? 
The cannabis and hemp space is not a market it's a game of unlocks: 
Access unlocks: Who can sell where 
Distribution unlocks: Who gets shelf space 
On-Premise unlocks: Who gets to shape consumer behavior 
Regulatory unlocks: Which side of the line you operate on

The people who win are not the ones with the best products
They're the ones with the best positioning when the unlock happens
I wasn’t wrong about the demand…I was wrong about the sequencing

So I failed as an odds maker, and changed my lens 

I stopped predicting when something will change 
I started positioning for what happens when it does 

I don’t need to guess the date Congress wakes up 
I just need to be on the board when they do
You don’t have to be an oddsmaker… 
You just have to be aligned when the unlock hits. 
And that’s a game I like my odds in.

I’m in a New York State of Mind right now.

I’ve been spending some time in the Empire State recently.

I’ve put together a few observations and suggestions…

Take them with a grain of salt.


>> Lessons From The Future

New York is currently a $1.7B market and will certainly grow.

But price compression has not yet begun to occur…

Jarred 1/8ths are amongst the highest price per gram of any legal state.

Most pure retail operators are not businesses but borderline not-for-profits.


>> Where the Pitfalls Are

Regulators in New York have already showed their hand, so HOPEFULLY they won’t continue the clown games.

A/R issues are coming, bank on it.

More brands are coming, and so is more high quality flower.

Retailers are going to feel the pinch of high rent, overbuilt stores and lack of profitability.


>> Who Can Win?

1. Those willing to study and learn from the past to avoid the inevitable future

2. Brands and those who are both entrenched and currently profitable

3. Anyone with one of the 10 RO licenses

4. Those currently there and in the lead


>> Who Can Lose? 

1. Consumers and investors

2. Anyone who is currently unprofitable - because it AIN’T gonna get easier.

3. Anyone without one of the 10 RO licenses.

4. Those eyeing the market from other states thinking it’s a gold mine...

Agree? Disagree?

Hit those comments.

Here’s the big thing I learned from the hemp ban:

First, NO ONE has been louder than me about the coming “inflection.”

Well…maybe I’m the dumbest guy on the internet…

Let’s break down why:


>> The Good

The Farm Bill allowed for the ubiquitous distribution of these molecules.

Loophole/Grey Area/ Unintended consequence, I don’t care what you think about that.

Putting the MOLECULES on Main Street and in the mail was NOT the intent.

But guess what, the consumer chose….the MOLECULES. 


>> The Bad

Cannabis is demonized, marginalized and constrained.

Produce, manufacture and sell in limited silos in specific areas in selected states.

Want to purchase? Go to the crappiest part of town where they put airports, chop shops and strip clubs.

Banking? Forget it. Normalization? Sure as soon as there is a dispensary on Rodeo Drive.


>> The Ugly

Once the Farm Bill allowed for the democratization of cannabis to occur, the consumer made a clear choice.

THEY CHOSE THE MOLECULES.

In the mail, in grocery stores, in liquor stores, in big box retail.

When you put the MOLECULES in the normal consumer purchase cycle they CHOSE IT.

and then what happened? Retail adopted. 

And that SCARED THE SH$T OUTTA: 
— ALCOHOL
— BEVERAGE
— CPG
— TOBACCO
— PHARMA

End of the day whether its Hemp or THC we are talking about the same MOLECULES.

The public WANTS it. So let’s keep making that case and stay united.

Today I give THANKS...

That I am not a Turkey...although some of you might beg to differ....

Thats it...

Happy Holidays !!!

And make sure you tell someone you love them today....

Believe it or not, I continue to hear from people that c@nnabis is NOT efficacious.

“Cannabis doesn’t really work for pain, sleep, or anxiety.”

I hear this from people who have:
— Never read a single clinical data table
— Never treated a patient
— Still think weed = teenagers + Bob Marley poster

Meanwhile, the SCIENCE is right there.


>> What’s Happening?

Recent clinical evaluations show consistent, measurable benefits:

Pain: 
→ Patients report statistically significant reductions about 0.5cm on a 10cm scale across populations. 
→ No placebo, that’s real analgesic effect at scale.

Sleep: 
→ Cannabis improves subjective sleep quality. 
→ If you’ve ever actually not slept, you know that you feel in the morning matters more than what your polysomnography printout says.

Anxiety: 
→ At appropriate dose and context, cannabinoids produce reliable anxiolytic effects, especially CBD.
→ THC requires respect and calibration yes. But to pretend it “doesn’t work” is just LAZY.

These effects are real, repeatable, clinically observed, and patient-reported across thousands of data points.

This is evidence!!!


>> Why Does This Matter?

There is a massive cultural blind spot around what counts as “meaningful efficacy.”

We are conditioned to think only in miracle outcomes:

— Erase all pain
— Cure insomnia
— Eliminate all anxiety

That’s not how real medicine works.

Real medicine is incremental improvement that accumulates into quality of life.

And cannabis delivers exactly that.


>> What Am I Watching?

The brands, operators, clinicians, and researchers who will win the next decade are the ones who:

1. Respect the evidence
2. Respect individual response and dosing
3. Position cannabis as a meaningful tool in the therapeutic toolkit
4. Communicate in clinical, human terms

Because here’s the TRUTH:

Cannabis works. It’s medicine. PERIOD.

So when someone dismisses cannabis because it’s not a miracle cure…

They’re telling you they don’t understand patients, medicine, or reality.

(and if you don’t know who is with me in the picture DO YOUR HOMEWORK)

You doing anything today??
 
Fat Nugs Magazine x Seth Yakatan present: The Plant Panel

We're hosting a new LinkedIn live with some of the sharpest minds working in cannabis.

Andrew Wells
Cesar Angobaldo
Courtney Zalewski
Fernando Bent-Mullings
Mei-Ling Campbell
Timeka Drew
Catherine Sidman
Luna Stower, MAT, CG ✨

TODAY: November 20th at 11AM EST/ 8AM PST.

FNM Presents: The Plant Panel w/ Seth Yakatan

Episode one is the Preroll Edition 

Business. Culture. Community.

Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/geV4jVmy

Big revealing news NO ONE was talking about:

This entrenched strategic jumped form factor and doubled down on the industry.


>> What Happened? 

The Boston Beer Company is expanding its “beyond beer” play.

Its brand Emerald Hour is launching THC gummies in Canada. 

These vegan gummies contain 5 mg THC, and the product is hitting dispensaries in Ontario and Alberta.


>> Why Does This Matter?

This is major because Boston Beer is signaling serious commitment to cannabis AND NOT just beverages (well, after the Hemp ban…pffft).

They are leveraging Bev/Alc cred into a new category, attempting to transfer brand equity from “beer & seltzer” into THC edibles.

The REAL question: Are they poised to win, or is this just a land grab without the operational muscle of a cannabis native?


>> What Am I Watching?

Will Boston Beer ramp distribution quickly (600+ dispensaries for the beverages already) and build meaningful shelf-presence?

How will Boston Beer execute operationally: supply chain, compliance, packaging, vegan/clean-label positioning?

Will this move prompt other major beverage players to accelerate into cannabis edibles, or has Farm Bill repeal made everyone gun-shy??

Success will be visible when margin expands, repeat consumer behavior is high, and the brand becomes credible not just in beer.

If you’re playing the game, EYES WIDE OPEN…this is a flanking move worth tracking. 

If you’re counting on it to drive immediate growth or dominance, chill.

Either way we just moved to DEFCON 2… 

And if you needed any further examples that alcohol was Donald Ducked then here you go.

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The Battle

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