Grow your investment boutique 📈 Founder / CEO @ Havener ⭐ $30B AUM for boutiques w/ The Billion Dollar Blueprint™ 💲 Story-led sales & marketing for founders, fund mgrs, and teams 🎤 Speaker ▪ Podcast Host

Hi, I’m Stacy - a blue-collar girl from the Berkshires who turned a way with words and love of numbers into a business that has raised billions for boutique asset managers.
 
I’ve raised $8B+ for new/undiscovered funds that led to $30B+ in follow-on AUM.

Being a female founder in the male-dominated investment industry at the age of 30 required a huge leap of faith in connecting two tribes: talented boutique asset managers and early adopter investors.

The leap of faith was spot on. 

10+ years later, Havener Capital Partners leads the industry in helping investment boutiques grow. We help clients in three ways: (1) Embedded as part of your sales and marketing team (2) Consulting on sales and marketing efforts with you (3) Coaching you and your team in our membership community

Whether it’s consulting and masterminds, expanding sales and marketing capabilities, or connecting to our network of RIAs and family offices, clients benefit from an expert team and a time-tested framework that has raised billions for boutiques.

If I can be of assistance, please reach out at stacy@havenercapital.com

A little more about me: 

I’m obsessed with all things old school – hip-hop music, classic cars, craft cocktails and vintage furniture. My best lessons in life were learned on the soccer field where I went from picking flowers at the age of 9, to playing on all-boy teams, to becoming an Academic All-American in college. 

Most days you will find me at our office in the city-by-the sea, Newport, RI, sitting next to my reggae-loving husband (who is also my business partner), with a Dunkin Donuts coffee in my hand, and our rescue pitbull at my feet. In addition to building a business together, Erik and I are raising a daughter which is by far my favorite adventure. 

At the heart of it all, there is one thing I believe in – underdogs. Doesn’t matter who we are or what industry we are in, we all start from the bottom; we have all been underdogs. This rebel spirit fuels me every day.

Stacy Havener

Started the year at $400 million, now? $1.9 billion. And a heart of gold from Day 1. 

These flowers are for Sean Peche 

His success in building Ranmore is impressive and inspiring

But the true inspiration is who he is as a person, friend, and leader

If you have met Sean and his team, you know they are special

This year has been a breakout year for Ranmore as AUM crossed the $1 billion dollar mark (and counting, currently at $1.9 billion)

-- Have they got a differentiated portfolio, yes 

-- Have they got the performance, yep

-- But they have something more

Heart
Passion 
Kindness

And while performance and process and portfolio matter a lot

The people matter most

We got together yesterday to celebrate Sean

How he has built his business with an incredible team 

And how he lives his life as an incredible person

- Owning his roots and his heritage
- Helping people who really need it

- Believing when others don't 
- Showing up when others won't 

Sean is an inspiration 

And as we talked about yesterday at lunch
"You can't be what you can't see"

In order for people to believe they can do something, they need to see someone else doing it

We need to see someone like us achieving that same success 

For every boutique who is on the path 

For every founder / fund manager who has a dream

See Sean Peche 

You can do this
We can do this

Congrats Ranmore and Sean
These flowers are for you 💐
Thank you for all you do

Spoke on a panel with two friends yesterday… and left with many more. 🥰

Honored to join fellow boutique champions James Lindsay and Dani Hristova for a powerful conversation at AIMSE Europe Limited.

We dug into the landscape for specialist managers:
what’s good, what’s tough,
and what we can *actually* do about it.

Here were a few themes that hit home:

---

1️⃣ Resist the temptation to hide

Boutiques often hide when markets get rocky.
We shrink. We stay quiet. We wait for “better times.”

But hiding is a bad plan.

Because our uniqueness is the thing allocators remember.
Our edges, our insights, our craft.

It's how we do in tough markets, yes, and also how we show up.
How we own mistakes and headwinds and struggle.

Use our voice consistently in good/bad times, not conveniently when all is rainbows and unicorns.

---

2️⃣ Hold space with confidence

Allocators aren’t trying to build a lineup of samesies.
They’re building portfolios of complements.

That means there is often a seat at the table for us.

For differentiated thinkers
For specialists
For boutiques

But we have to hold our space.
Not with bravado.
With presence.

A quiet, grounded confidence that says:
We know who we are. 
We know what we do. 
We know the value our strategy brings to a portfolio.

Complement > Compete

---

3️⃣ Don’t change… and also, change

(This was one of my favorite moments from the panel. 😂)

Because it’s the nuance we never talk about:

✔️ Don’t change the essence—the thing that makes us special, distinct, compelling.

✔️ But do change the strategies, tactics, or approaches that no longer serve us.

Maybe those tactics weren’t ever meant for us.
Maybe they worked for “everyone else”… but not for specialists like us.
Maybe we’re meant to lead with something different...

because we authentically are. ❤️

Boutiques grow when they stay anchored in their uniqueness
and unafraid to evolve everything around it.

---

Grateful for the panel.
Grateful for the room.
Grateful for this community building the future of active management.

Lucky and honored to be a part of it

💐

My friends at a $10B fam office are my London lifeline (and British decoder ring). I underestimated something kind of big.

Yesterday, we talked about entrepreneurial spirit and growth mindset...

*Is this easier to tap into for Americans than the British?*

🤔

Many brilliant people struggle to tap into their entrepreneurial spirit.

Not because they lack ideas.
Not because they lack ambition.

But because they’ve been conditioned to believe:

- Growth should feel safe.
- Investing in yourself is risky.
- And if you stretch… you’ll be confronted, not supported.

(That word confronted is sticking with me as it's the opposite of what our clients feel.)

Entrepreneurial spirit isn’t a personality trait.

It’s a muscle.
One that anyone can build.

Here are 3 ways we can start tapping into it:

---

1️⃣ Make a micro-bet on ourselves

Not a moonshot.
Not a quit-your-job-jump-without-a-parachute bet.
A micro one.
The kind that expands our identity without collapsing our nervous system.

Sign up for a workshop

Launch a tiny pilot

Test an idea with 3 trusted people

Micro bets → micro wins → macro confidence.

---

2️⃣ Trade perfection for iteration

Entrepreneurs don’t wait for the perfect plan.

We take the next step.

Ship.
Learn.
Adjust.
Repeat.

When we stop insisting “I must be ready" before I make a move, we start discovering “I can figure this out” now while I move.

---

3️⃣ Surround ourselves with people who believe in growth

Environment is everything.

We rise in rooms where:

- Investing in growth is normal

- Stretching is celebrated

- Support replaces scrutiny

Progress > perfection

Entrepreneurial spirit is contagious, yes, but only in the right company.

---

Here's my promise to you:

Growth is worth investing in.
And it doesn’t have to feel painful.

It can feel supported.
It can feel expansive.

It can feel like the moment we finally remember who we’ve been all along.

(That last one 🙌)

👉 If this resonated, I’d love to hear which of these 3 help you tap into a growth mindset? 

And of course I am here for any additional learnings on American // British culture and personality nuances

PS I am your biggest fan. ❤️

= 
If you are going to AIMSE today in London, see you there! 

(Entrepreneurial spirit will be a vibe.)

"Traditions aren't about adding more to your busy schedule, but filling it intentionally."

That quote hits after a weekend of Thanksgiving and traditions.

The word "Intentional" gives things a different spin tho. A more heart-filled spin. More weight attached to even the lighter things we do. 

Here are a few of mine:

Is it even Thanksgiving if we don't... 

-- Start the day with a 3.1 mile "Pie Run"

-- Screw up at least 1 recipe 

(this year it was the pumpkin pie for me, made it twice if I'm honest) 😬

-- Have a dance party in the kitchen

-- Watch Christmas movies, drink red wine, and cry 😭 🥰

Those things could be happenstance
But I think they are intentional

Traditions don't always have to be shiny fancy sparkly
or highly starched tight collared stuffy

Sometimes they are messy and cozy and comfortable 

And those moments are some of the best.

My heart is full of gratitude going into the 49th week of the year.

Here's to more intention.

Your turn. 

👉 Add to the list! Is it even the holidays if we don't... 

(🥧 pie run over the years 📷)

"Don't look back - you aren't going that way." I disagree. Look back.
(Also important to look right 😘)

Play the way you are facing. 
Yes. ⚽
Plan forward. 
Yes. 📈

*And measure backwards.*

That’s the look back we need.

Because high achievers hit a goal and then we move the goal post on ourselves, don't we?

Next milestone.
Next level.
Next goal.

Between now and next there is a gap. We can get stuck there.

Measuring backwards is the breakout of that gap.

It's the gain - measuring how far we’ve come.

That’s confidence.
And we need to protect it.

Here are 3 ways to measure backwards ⬇️

1. Reflect in milestones, not miles.

Think back to the beginning of the year: where were you on key goals then vs now?

Go back 3 years: what problems or goals felt big then that you've checked off the list?

Progress compounds quietly.

2. Revisit your firsts.

The first client.
The first hire.
The first pitch that worked.

Remember when this version of normal was just a dream?

3. Re-read your own receipts.

Testimonials.
Notes from clients.
Screenshots of kind words.
Proof that your work is working.

Progress hides in plain sight.
We just forget to turn around and see it.

So before year end take time to look back.
Measure backwards.

We've come a long way, Friends. 

👉 Which of the 3 look backs are you vibing with? 

---

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I missed a big opportunity in our London expansion. Obvious, even.

UK fund managers want access to the US market. 

(Ohhhh - why didn't you just tell me! 😉)

We have been helping London-based fund houses sharpen their story,
build a narrative that moves investors,
embrace behavioral-finance-based sales strategies,
and leverage LinkedIn to grow.

I overlooked a foundational element, target market.

The outcome many UK boutiques want most?

Access to U.S. investors.

When I came to London this trip, I was struggling a bit with our offer, I decided to ask a point blank question

What do you want? 
Really. Tell me. 

And slowly but surely it answers started to make sense

On our AIMSE panel, Dani Hristova said how tough the UK market is for boutiques.

Conversations with fund managers and C-suite execs who point blank said, we want access to the US.

And me, v not Captain Obvious, saying: riiiiight, I get it (now)
🤦‍♀️

Because here’s the reality:

🇬🇧 It’s getting more difficult to grow in the UK.
Pension and wealth channels are 
consolidating.
Family offices are tough to crack.
Launching a boutique is still incredibly challenging.

And yet…

🇺🇸 The grass is greener in the U.S.
Not because it’s easy.
But because it’s *possible*.

Here are 3 reasons the U.S. market is a fit for non-U.S. managers:

1️⃣ Access to a broader, more diverse allocator ecosystem

Pension funds, endowments, foundations, consultants, multi-family offices, RIAs: the U.S. has depth and diversity that gives boutiques room to find their people.

2️⃣ A culture that rewards specialization

U.S. investors actively seek differentiated shops.
Story, narrative, and edge matter here, especially for boutiques who know who they are.

3️⃣ A more open door for global perspectives

Many allocators want outside-the-U.S. ideas: new geographies, new frameworks, new edges.

Being non-U.S. is an advantage.

The wild part?

This opportunity has been in front of us the whole time... and I nearly missed it.

So now, we’re leaning in. 

👉 Did I get it? What else am I missing? What is in the way of US  distribution?

I overheard a fund salesperson throwing shade at a conference.
Plot twist...

It was said about a multi-billion allocator (which is bizarro bc Hi, that's a dream client for you but ok)

The salesperson was ragging on the fact that this allocator posts on LinkedIn and has a newsletter.

(let's insert crickets chirping so we can process the absurdity for a minute)

Now, let's count the ways this is wrong.

1. If I heard them talking smack, others did too. It's not a good look generally. Call me pollyannic but nobody got time for negativity and nastiness. 

2. Shade is often a big glass of hater-ade in disguise. Whenever we feel jealousy or envy towards someone, it's actually a clue that we may want something they have. 

3. LinkedIn is right here for all of us. For free. And if you are still sleeping on its power, that's a you problem. There's a whole crew of us that got the memo and are making it count. 

(that's just 3 things but please add to the list bc there's so much more wrong and missing)

---

If you think (secretly or overtly) that LinkedIn and building a personal brand is "arrogant," I am going to politely suggest, in the words of Ice Cube, that you check yourself before you wreck yourself.

It's not arrogance to be sharing our thoughts authentically... 

it's ignorance not to.

👉 What would you add to the list of wrongs or what would you advise this shade thrower to consider?

=

+ In finance? Wondering if LinkedIn could help you build a brand (and a business)? We got you (and yes, it can)

+ Dec 12 workshop with Anna. No shade shall be thrown. See you there!

Growth unlocks hide in unlikely places. (This $1 billion backstory starts with a box in the garage.)

Check it:

$1 billion raised in 3 years.
For a new fund.
From a base of $1 million of the founder's own money.

No track record? 
No data?
No problem.

A new strategy and a new vehicle launched by an existing founder-led $4B hedge fund.

My mandate was the launch of this new fund and most of the firm was super skeptical about.

(like massive eye roll)

I wasn't. I was confident and I went right for the goods.

The founder's words.

A box of old letters
Commentaries over the years 

When I think back to my most successful capital raise, the thing that moved allocators wasn't the performance or the pitch deck.

It was decades of investor letters that were pulled into a collection.
Sitting in the founder's garage in a water logged box.
Yellowed pages.
Coffee stains.

The letters gave a glimpse:

-- Good times and bad times.
-- How they thought through the '08 crisis.
-- How they positioned when everyone else panicked.
-- What they saw that others missed.

The letters were gold.

Because here's what we forget:

Capital raising isn't about investing in numbers.
It's about investing in the people who generate those results.

How they think differently.
What they see that others don't.
What they do that others won't.

The allocators who took a chance on this new fund weren't buying a bulletproof process.
They were buying beautiful minds.

A way of thinking that had weathered decades.
A perspective that had been pressure-tested.
A voice that stayed consistent and edgy when markets went mad.

We spend so much time perfecting our pitch decks.
Polishing our performance charts.

But the real differentiator?

It's in how we think.
How we communicate that thinking.
How we've thought through problems over time.

That founder didn't just have returns.
He had receipts.

Proof of how his mind worked.
Evidence of his decision-making.
A paper trail of his principles.

And that's what moved the money.

Not the numbers.
The narrative behind them.

So before you update that deck for the 47th time
Before you add another shade of blue into the chart of those performance metrics 😘

Ask yourself:

Are you showing them the numbers
Or are you showing them the mind behind them? 

Because investors don't back businesses.
They back the brains that build them.
The people with the beautiful minds.
You. ❤️

👉 Do you think LinkedIn is collection of people's thoughts like a digital box of letters? 

=
+ Got words?

+ Join us Dec 12th to workshop how old letters and commentaries can fuel your growth flywheel.

+ (The gal in this pic is aces. Hint: it's not me )

6 little lies we tell ourselves as boutique fund managers


1. Investors will find me.

They are busy. They don't have time to search for you. 


2. It will only take 6 months to fundraise.

Double or triple expectations. 12 - 18 months average due diligence cycle. 


3. Large allocators will give us a small percentage.

They can't. It's not worth their time and energy to make 100s of small allocations. 


4. I can skip the marketing costs now and do it later.

If we don't market now, there may not be a later.


5. This cheap fix will last until I can replace it with something better. 

We get what we pay for. Cheap fixes break and then we have to fix them ... which is expensive. 


6. Once I hit $X, I will be able to relax. 

Bc markets move, bc clients need hand holding, bc people redeem, bc as high achievers we keep striving for more. 

👉 Which one of these hits hardest??

📌 I will be breaking 2 of these down for the next 3 weeks in beach walk and talks. 

Follow Stacy Havener and ring the bell 🔔 to get the 🎥🌊

"There are a lot of people in navy suits with red ties that command attention who are saying jack sh!*."

Is executive presence overrated and broken? Even the definition is unclear.

(Related to personal brand but not quite the same IMO)

Brene Brown and Adam Grant have been challenging the idea of executive presence. 

It's grab your popcorn and your notebook good. 

It's an important debate this idea of exec presence being overrated.

I still believe our exec presence, our brand, is important.

The construct is hellabroken but... As execs and founders and leaders we still need it. 

We need to redefine it.

Here's another Brene Brown quote:

"Executive presence is a prescriptive way of defining what a leader looks like and sounds like when often it is the quiet 'nerd' in the meeting who often has the best answers."

This hit hard for me especially in my work in finance and investments. 

BUT

We can't stay hidden and hope someone sees us.

We can't stay hidden and hope clients find our business or fund. 

We can't stay hidden and hope to grow in our careers.

Hidden and hopeful is not going to get it done.

Even if the quiet hidden hopeful ones often have the chops intellectually, they often lack em socially.

And that's ok. That's normal.

If we own where we are and build a plan to address where we want to go. 

It's on us to break the old mold of exec presence, redefine it, and build it with intention. 

My version includes dance circles as pitch practice. 🤷‍♀️

👉 Curious what you think about exec presence. Overrated and useless or poorly defined and important or somewhere in between?

And

🎧 Highly recommend listening to them on a pod or vid btw. Will throw some resources in below. 

=
🙌 Follow me Stacy Havener if you like this post and want to work on your exec presence/personal brand

Want to create urgency in your sales funnel? 
(Steal this framework.)

It's based on the age old classic sales narrative from a Harvard professor of the drill and the hole in the wall. 

First, let's back up. 

A well-crafted narrative moves people to do something.

But before people will do something they need to feel something. 

So to catalyze people on our funnel to take action, we need to make them feel something first. 

Framework: What How Why 

What is the product or service
How is the action it delivers
Why is the result it creates

Get clear on that for your target client

Then

Invert it

For maximum impact

Urgency comes from the feeling we create. 

Hearmenow: The. Feeling.

(yes, even in investment biz dev we all up in the feelings here my friends)

-- We don't buy a drill
-- We don't even buy the hole in the wall 
-- We buy the peaceful beautiful feeling we have from the art we hang on said wall

Feel something => Do something

👉 How else can we tap into feelings in sales and biz dev??  

Breaking it down at the beach 
🎥🌊🙌

---
Art of storytelling +
Science of human behavior =
New Playbook Success

Havener + Marmite. Behind the scenes with a client 

(and flowers to an allocator friend)

Marmite. You either love it or you hate it.

This is what my friend Simon Evan-Cook told me in one of our first chats. 

He explained that this is the type of fund managers he likes to see. People who have strong beliefs and high convictions and aren't afraid to attract and repel. 

Many of our fund clients at Havener are marmite.

One of them is British. 

He loves marmite. Specifically twiglets. 

(Stay with me bc this American girl was v lost too) 😂

So at one of our events a few years ago, Jonathan brought twiglets. 

And we made a video of a few of us tasting these bitter little snacks at the Castle Hill Inn Summit by the Sea.

I won't spoil the results of this experiment but I will say...

I get it. I get why Marmite is a good metaphor for managers who think differently and bravely. 

-- Whether you like Marmite or not, maybe you like managers who aren't afraid to take a stance and go against consensus. 

-- Maybe you think emerging markets are having a moment and want to hear from someone whose been investing in them for 20 years. 

If that's you, join me for a chat with Jonathan Binder next week. 

It will be fun. 

BYOM. (Bring your own marmite. Or gin as the case may be. No judgement here)

👉 Are you thumbs up or down on Marmite? Twiglets? 

💐 To our great allocator friends and clients. You remind me why I love my job. ❤️

🎥 video credit: Anna Robinson and cameo appearance by Arun Kaul

=
+ Join Jonathan Binder and me for a chat on frontier emerging markets on Dec 10 at 1 pm EST

+ Register: https://acesse.one/XFmQ5

1 move has 3Xd quality and quantity of prospect meetings for our clients
(Do it from your desk)

(Literally "from the desk of..." is the vibe)

1/ Prep before we play

- Tier your funnel
- Identify your faves
- Regardless of stage
- Your A Team like 20ish 

Faves = prospects you would *love* to have as clients

Like run thru a wall to have them bc they are ideal clients for you

(ideal doesn't just mean big $$$ aum btw)

2/ In addition to your newsletter that goes to everyone on the funnel and distribution list

Fund managers write a custom note ad hoc to Tier 1 prospects

3/ "From the desk of" 
As in it is sent by the fund manager (not the salesperson)

-- Thoughts on the market
-- Updates on a position 
-- Developments on the biz side

Think of what you would write to your internal team

Adapt it for Tier 1 prospects externally 

Do this with no ask of them
It's a give 💐

4/ When you're ready to build a trip, reach out to them as anchor meetings.

Watch your meeting calendar fill with meetings so good you'd drag your suitcase down the street in the snow for 'em 

🙌

💡 Why does it work?
Science of human behavior

People like to feel special

We have a fundamental need to feel valued and unique

And in typical sales that's watered down mass everything (even more so with AI) human-first actions like this stand out.

👉 I am not saying AI isn't cool, but outsourcing the special bits is a mistake. Feel me?

=

PS these are the types of campaigns we create for clients to help them get more meetings with better prospects

and then we help close em

if you like more better meetings, call us ☎️

My name is not Maverick, but I am a bit of a maverick. 

After graduating from NC State University in December 1998, I started my financial planning practice - what has become Hicks & Associates Wealth Management. 

Joining the industry in February 1999, I saw the last year of the great bull run up close.

I then saw the dot com crisis up close too. 

Going through that crisis, the leaders of the firm which I was then affiliated, assured me, “Don’t worry. This is a once in a career crisis. It’s good to get it behind you in the beginning.”

We survived and I soldiered on.

Then came the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008.

“Don’t worry.” I was told, “This is a once in a career crisis.”

Wait, didn’t you guys say that already?

After this second stock market crisis, the proverbial scales fell from my eyes. I became convinced that financial planning and portfolio management are two distinctly different skill sets. I had one, but not the other.

This is the backstory of how Hicks & Associates Wealth Management has come to specialize in managing the wealth that you’ve spent decades building. 

Who we serve:
→ We serve individuals and families that do not want to see their wealth take the stairs on the way up, and the elevator back down.
→ We serve those who believe a defensive strategy is just as important - sometimes even more important - than an offensive strategy.
→ We serve those who want truly professional, truly active portfolio management.

If you'd like to chat, send me a DM.

Theodore Hicks, CFP, CKA, CMT

You know some Amazon rankings are bought.
Mine was not ... 


I've learned a lot since publishing my book back in July. 
Before publishing, I was told how to game the system.

It is apparently easy to become an "Amazon Best Seller". 

Ain't gonna lie, 
that was my plan. 

Try to get as many people as possible 
To buy on the same day ... 

I could become an "Amazon Best Seller".
But there's good news / bad news.

Bad news first.

The folks I hired to help me, just hit the "publish" button. 
I had been clamoring for clarity. 
When will this be done? 
When will it be ready? 

I was planning a book launch party. 
Yes, I wanted to celebrate. 
But a friend had told me:

"Use the book launch party as a way to get a bunch of folks to buy the book all at the same time." 

The algorithm is hoodwinked.
So, to speak. 

But, after clamoring for a publication date 
I continuously heard that it would be "soon".
Then one day I woke up to an email that said, 

"Congratulations, you're a published author." 

There goes that plan.

But here's the good news:
And it's pretty sweet in my view.

Since I didn't game the system, 
climbing (even for just a day) to #47 ...
seems like quite the big deal to me. 

And if you were to look at this list, 
my book is competing with classics! 

I quote Benjamin Graham in my book. 
His book The Intelligent Investor ... 
it was written in the 1930s!!

It is such a classic, it still sells. 
Graham's book is ahead of mine in this list, 
but my book is actually competing with Graham's. 

That's pretty stinking cool.

And take a look at #49. 
My book is outperforming one of the Market Wizard books?! 
Holy cow, that's very cool.

To God be the glory.

PS If you haven't gotten a copy of my book, all profits from my book sales will be donated to charities that have been instrumental in helping Western NC recover from Hurricane Helene.


❓ Next step - get to 50 verified reviews. I'm currently at 21. If you read my book, would you leave me a verified review for me? 
[To that end, you can get the Kindle version for $4.
That still counts as a verified purchase.]

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Author, Evidence-Based Investing | Managing Wealth for the C-Suite

This is not my turkey.
This is my Baby Bear.


Caroline and I went to see Anne Wilson.
We've really been digging her music.

I love her country music.
I also love she is unashamed of her faith.

We had great seats.
Thoroughly enjoyed the show.

Looks like she'll be back in NC next year.
We'll likely go see her again.

Since Caroline wants to be a performer,
I love that Anne is a solid role model.

Hope you have a great Thanksgiving.

A week ago, I stated a YE rally is still likely.
Today, I am far less certain.


You've heard the nursery rhyme:
Jack be nimble, jack be quick.
Jack jumped over the candlestick. 

Well, I'm not Jack.
But I'm going to remain nimble & quick.

When we manage wealth for others, 
it is frequently for people who are close to retirement.

They've spent a lifetime building their wealth.
They don't want it to drop significantly in a bad market.

So, we remain nimble.
We remain quick.

We are quick to defend.
But we must also remain nimble.

Many years ago, I was listening to the book:
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders.

The subject of the interview stated:
"We have strong opinions.
Weekly held."

At least, that's what I heard.
What he really said, was 

"We have strong opinions,
weakly held."

I was doing yard work when I was listening.
So it was not with 100% concentration.
But I heard what I heard.

It was some time later that I realized my error.
That "weakly" had an "a" not a double "e".
Big difference.

That is our approach. 
We have strong opinions.
We move and allocate with convictions.

But when the evidence tells us we were wrong,
we change our opinion.

There is just no reason not to.
Read my book to really understand why.

But here's a hint:
Transaction costs are $0
Today, they cost you nothing.

But a lack of vigilance,
➡️ that can cost you everything.

Attached are two charts to back up my thoughts.
They basically show continued weakness.

I will write a longer form "article".
Will explain why my opinion is changing.

Follow Hicks & Associates Wealth Management, LLC
That's where you'll find the long-form
If you want to go deeper.


❓ PS Anyone else wonder why Jack's mom let him play with a candlestick? Think that's how the great Chicago fire got started?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

As we head into Christmas,
I will file this under "Christmas blessings".


Granted, this is overly simplistic.
[But aren't all LinkedIn posts?]

This is only one data point.
But it shows that delinquencies went down.

Fewer people are delinquent on their debt.
Specifically, their credit card debt.

When I couple this with other data points,
it appears to me, Americans are ready.

Recessions can be brutal affairs.
They tend to occur when folks aren't ready.

This is overly simplistic.
But sometimes that's best.

I will go into more detail in our monthly YouTube market & economic update, which should be posted ...
Hopefully, by lunchtime.


❓Who's already done with Christmas shopping? 

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Who loves the fall?
Wanna cycle across NC?


Teddy does not have any soccer games today.
I should have planned a group bike ride.

60 degrees at the moment.
Missed opportunity ...

But maybe later this afternoon?

Next fall, I'm thinking about Cycle NC.
It's a bike ride across NC.

Would love to put together a team.
It's not a competition.
Just a cool ride.

I imagine I'll see a lot of NC that I've never seen.
Maybe I can get the family to come too.

They'd drive from town to town.
I'll bike from town to town.


❓ Who wants to be a part of the team?

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

LinkedIn

JSESSIONID

li_at

Maybe I need a new version of this sign.
For my front door, perhaps?


"Halt!
Do Not Enter if you're sick."

I'm working from home today,
'cuz I am a little under the weather.

Nothing dramatic.
Nothing that'll stop me from working.
But I believe I picked up this cold needlessly.

IMO, it's common courtesy ...
If you are sick, work from home.
and switch our meeting to a virtual one.

If you're kids are sick,
don't send them to my house to play.
don't send them to soccer practice either.

I have no idea how I got this minor cold.
But, every winter, it's the same thing.
No one wants to get sick.

So reduce the risk for others.
Quarantine yourself & your kids.

PS While I'm ranting ...
use your dang blasted turn signal.

It's really not that hard.
Show common courtesy to other drivers.

Rant over ...

Back to your regular scheduled post:

➡️ Be wise with your wealth.
➡️ Follow your investment rules. 
➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk.

Post Script:
I guzzle orange juice when I'm sick. 
I used to buy OJ and an Entenmann's Danish - 
the huge Raspberry Danish Twists that you can "share". 

But I never shared 'em. 
Just ate it throughout the day. 
I don't buy those anymore - but man does it sound good right now! 


❓ What's your comfort food when you're sick?

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Last week was NOT good.
But Friday's action was decisively positive.


Overall, last week was pretty negative.
There were lots of bearish signs.

However, one week isn't a trend.
So, no need to panic.

[But if panic is your "M.O." ...
well you shouldn't be managing money.]

This does not mean we took no action last week.
We took some gains off the table.
We also cut some losses short.

➡️ That's just us being vigilant.
➡️ 'Cuz that's how we roll.

For now, I'm still optimistic.
I still think we'll see a year-end rally.

I plan to go into some detail on my YouTube.
I will shoot that video today.

That said, take a look at the first chart.
This is the small-cap ETF, IWM.

The bottom pane is showing "participation".
Only ~52% of small-caps are in an uptrend.
~48% of small-caps are in a downtrend.

➡️ That's not bullish.

Look at the second chart.
This is IWV, the Russell 3000.

This is showing the Advance-Decline line.
It's been declining for a while.

➡️ That's not bullish.

But ...
Take a peak at Friday's candle.

On both charts, we see the same thing.
➡️ That IS bullish.

If you're not familiar with these charts ...
The positions opened lower.
Then traded even lower!

But then had STRONG rallies to close the day.
➡️That IS bullish. 💪 

I'll go into more detail in my YouTube analysis.
All the cool kids subscribe to the channel.


❓ Tomorrow is Veteran's Day. If you served our nation, comment below with your branch and when you served.
As for me, I wanted to fly AV-8s for the USMC. 
But God had other plans.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also manage wealth for the C-Suite and Execs.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Do you know what precedes recessions? 


Historically speaking, market drawdowns.
That's what precedes recessions.

Well, we are at an interesting juncture.
The divergence in the market is very large.

There's a strong argument that the average company,
well they've been battling a mini-recession.

For whatever reason, 
the average stock has not gone anywhere.

I show this in last week's YouTube video.
And it is NOT a sign of stock market health.

➡️ It's a sign of vulnerability.

So, from what I can see,
we are at a critical juncture.

We are about to see one of two things.

Either a rising tide will FINALLY lift all boats, or
the facade will come crashing down.

Either way, we are prepared.
If you are not sure you are,
Send me a DM.


❓ Have you bought your Thanksgiving Turkey yet?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

"You're invested for the long-haul."
That's disingenuous at best.


This is another clip from being LockedIn.
Algenon Cash had me on last week.

He asked a good question:
"Why did you choose that sub-title?"

Too many talking heads on TV ...
most never managed money.

The reality is that losses hurt.
Psychologically, they hurt real bad.
Especially if you are real close to retiring.

This is why we manage money the way we do.
We have to survive the short-term.

Our process is tight.
It is very well defined.

That does NOT mean every trade is profitable.
But it does mean we know our process.

And, a key part of our process ...
is doing our best to sidestep large drawdowns.


❓ Off topic, I'm brining the turkey this year. First time I've ever done that, any secrets you wanna share?

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

According to Howe, we are in The Fourth Turning 
... and that ain't good.


Generally, speaking,
I do not like prophetic books. 

So much of it seems,
well, nothing but fear-mongering.

A friend kept telling me 'bout this book.
But I kept brushing it off.

It was prophetic.
I'm not interested.

But, about six months ago, 
a client mentioned this book.

When a widow brings it up ...
fine, I'll read it.

Finished it recently.
It's a well researched book.

But it's not for the faint of heart.
465 pages, ain't a quick read. 

Basically, 
Countries go thru cycles.

Are you familiar with the business cycle?
Expansion & then the Peak
Contraction & the Trough

That's basically it.
That makes logical sense.

But, here's the kicker.
Howe argues there's usually a big catalyst

His argument is something ugly.
Think Revolutionary War.
The Civil War
WWII

Once we are on the other side,
Peace & prosperity

But getting THROUGH the crisis ...
That ain't fun & can be quite ugly.

According to Neil Howe,
his cycle analysis leads him to believe
we are in The Fourth Turning with a crisis near.

He predicts a major crisis soon.
Maybe concluding by 2035.

While I'm not agreeing with his conclusion ...
➡️ What if he's right?

If he is right,
if a major crisis is coming,
our investment management process is ready.

If he is right?
📌 Are you ready?


❓ How many pieces of pie did you have yesterday?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

If my hair was on fire & my feet were in a bucket of ice ...
On average, I'd be comfortable.


I used that line in my book.
It is usually attributed to Yogi Berra.

Sure seems like something he'd say.
But I'm not convinced he actually said this one.

He did, however, give us this classic:
"Baseball is 90 percent mental.
The other half is physical."

Well, if you know your stock market history,
you know November is THE best month.

At least it is by historical standards.
We cannot do anything with that data. 

➡️ It is just a bit of stock market trivia.

The reality is that there are a lot of issues.
The massive divergence is problem #1.

[I explain that in our recent YouTube video 
It was published last week.]

For now, just know this:
November is historically awesome for stocks.

That does NOT mean stocks will go up this month.
It just means that they do on average.

But, to (allegedly) quote Yogi Berra:

"Averages don't mean nothing.
If they did, I could have my hair on fire,
and my feet in a bucket of ice. And, on average,
I'd be comfortable."

➡️ Be wise with your wealth.
➡️ Follow your investment rules. 
➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk.


❓ What did you do this weekend?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

I got Locked In again.
Got to talk about what I mean by my title.


Big thanks to Algenon Cash for having me back.
He hosts his LockedIn podcast and radio show.

He's representing North Carolina strong. 💪 
So, after my last appearance on his show,
I send him a copy of my book.

Turns out, he liked it. 
So, he had me back to talk about it.

I'll let him post the link to the full show.
Hopefully, you'll find it in the comments below.

His first question,
"What do I mean when I say 'evidence'?"

Great question.
My answer:

It is not theoretical evidence.
It's not historical evidence.
It's the current evidence.
It's a positive trend.

If it's a great theory,
and it's got great history,
but it's in a negative trend:

I'm not interested yet.

➡️ Be wise with your wealth.
➡️ Follow your investment rules. 
➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk. 


❓ We are hosting Friendsgiving tomorrow. What are you doing this weekend?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Real Estate Investment Banker | Consultant | Teacher | Media Personality | Founder of Eat Drink Triad

82% of adults feel stressed about money.
There's a hidden culprit.


Bill Cates' new book elaborates.
It's an allegory and it's very well done.

It's very easy to read.
It's very entertaining too.
I listened as I blew leaves last month.

Bill Cates, Unlocking Exponential Growth
First got introduced to his work ~25 years ago.

He has been coaching advisors for years.
I've read Unlimited Referrals a few times.

But his latest book is quite different.
It is an allegory and it's fantastic.

I'm gonna order a bunch to give to clients.
Will probably give a copy to the kids too.
And likely kids of clients.

That said, here's a recent Ted talk of his.
He talks about this hidden heist.

If you're looking for an educational gift,
look up the latest by Bill Cates.

[Bet you thought I was gonna mention my book.
That's not a bad idea, now that you mention it. 😉 ]


❓ Do you give books at Christmas? I get at least one book every Christmas.

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

https://lnkd.in/edmcNQBU

Open video: How to stop your money anxiety & start building wealth – today!  | Bill Cates | TEDxWarrenton on youtu.be

How to stop your money anxiety & start building wealth – today!  | Bill Cates | TEDxWarrenton

This will get updated next week.
That update is critical in my view.


The data is official from the Federal Reserve.
It's the Job Openings Data.

After the massive spike down
and recovery spike back up
from Covid

One could easily argue that it has crashed.

Side note:
Note the arrow at the top.
That's when ChatGPT was released.

That's CORRELATION.
Not necessarily CAUSATION.

But interesting just the same.

Lately, the data has leveled off.
I want to see this pop back higher.

Specifically, back above the top red line.
But it might take another month or two.

Let me know if you have any questions.
Just send me a DM.


❓ Teddy has his last soccer game of the season tomorrow at 9am, in December. Good grief that should be illegal. What are you doing this weekend?


~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Market volatility does not stress me out.
That's because we have a detailed process.

We stick to the process.
We follow our investment management rules.

That's what keeps us free from stress.

So, cycling, is not really a stress reliever. 
I am not (usually) stressed.

That said, I do love long bike rides.
Notice the lack of cars.

Cars can stress me out.
Not really ... but some drivers make me 🤬 

Sadly, this is from a few months back.
August, technically.

Believe this is Chatham County.
Note the lack of cars.

That's my buddy Mujteba Haidri.
And Brian Lewis is back there too.

But this picture is deceptive.
I was usually in the back of the line.

Those two are strong riders.

Don't know that I'll get out this weekend.
But I gotta get out at least once next week.

I think I will complete Cycle NC next year.
That's cycling across the state of NC.
Should be in October.

Believe Brian is in.
I think Pete Deichler might be too.
Would love to build out a team of 10.

Yes, I manage wealth for others.
No, I don't get stressed about it.

But I still like to get away from it all.

❓ What's your stress reliever routine?

Operating Partner | Senior Executive | Board Member | Value Creation and Growth Acceleration

Founder/Principal Officer

Retired

The average American appears to be ready.
It appears we've learned a lesson.


After the 2008 financial crisis,
Americans have been paying down debts.

The evidence also shows cash is high.
That's another strong sign.

Having strong cash reserves ...
well, that's prudent financial preparedness.

Eliminating or paying down debts ...
also prudent financial preparation.

Generally speaking, 
recessions happen when we aren't prepared.

Right now, the data suggests:
➡️ Americans are prepared.

This is an overly simple analysis.
But sometimes that's best.

We also see the S&P 500 pushing higher.
Not every stock is participating, but ...
Generally, this is also a good sign.

Put all of this together ...
I don't see a recession in the near term.

Of course, I may be wrong.
We don't manage money based on predictions.

We follow the data.
If the price trends change, we'll change too.

If you want a slightly more in depth analysis:
➡️ Check out the full YouTube video
The link is in the comments.

If you have any questions, feel free to ask me.
Just send me a DM & I'll respond.


❓Have you started Christmas shopping yet?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

After 25 years, it FINALLY happened.
But I almost missed the significance.


This is one of the examples from my book.
Hat-tip to Tim Fortier for pointing it out.

We've been working with some $CSCO clients.
Did our best to capitalize on this high.

But I am usually looking at the hear & now.
We study history, for sure.
But we don't dwell on it.

So, we were paying attention to this action.
'Cuz we've got CSCO clients.

So, we saw the jump higher.
But I'm so zoomed in to the present,
I almost missed the significance of the action.

➡️ It finally reclaimed the high from 25 years ago.

Stocks do not go up forever.
Trends matter.

PS There's a very big divergence in the markets.
It will resolve one of two ways:

1) Up - The average stock finally gets moving.
2) Down - The big boys finally fall.

Divergences like we have now do not last.
📌 We are prepared for either scenario.

If the first, we're all happy.
If the later, only the prepared will be.

Send me a DM if you want to chat.

Growing your wealth is important.
Defending what you've got is even greater.


❓What were you doing 25 years ago? 

~~~~
We manages wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

CIO | Substack Author | Model Portfolio Architect |Systematic Investment Strategies to Grow and Protect Wealth for Advisors and Self-Directed Investors

I see some concerning economic data.
But that one red arrow might explain a lot.


I love how the technical community is so open.
So many good folks willing to help one another.

I've been writing for CMT Association all week.
Specifically, for Investopedia Chart Advisor.
The chart below was in today's edition.

But I didn't even know about this data point.
Ryan Gorman, CFA, CMT, BFA pointed it out to me.
It's become a go-to economic chart for me ever since.

The bottom pane is a pretty good recession indicator.
It's got a pretty stellar record.
I had never heard about it.
Thanks Ryan.

The top pane is the unemployment rate.
The bottom = Schannep Recession indicator.

I forget how it's calculated.
Asked Optuma to program it for me.

I wrote about this last year, back in the summer.
The Schannep Recession Indicator fired.
It moved above the 0.40 line.

But it has since moved back below it.
Perhaps that explains a lot!

The average stock has been struggling hard.
Yes, we all know NVDA keeps hitting homeruns.

The Mag 7 have been okay too.
But that is NOT true for the rank & file stock.

The average publicly traded company ...
They've been struggling a bit.

So, here's a theory I heard recently.
Perhaps most have been dealing with an undeclared, mini-recession?

When I scan through economic data ...
I see some concerning signs.

However, I also see some strength.
It looks like the average American is prepared.

So, I do not think we will see a recession near-term.
But I could easily be wrong!

That's why we don't manage wealth based on predictions.
We manage based on the evidence of price trends.

If the Fed is going to cut rates again next month,
that should help the slowing economy.

But even as I type that, I know:
The Atlanta Fed GDP Now tool is predicting ~4.2% GDP.

That would be a crazy good 4th Quarter stat!
Consumer confidence is also pretty low.
What a strange year this has been.


❓ What do you see? Do you see a slowing economy? Or one firing on all cylinders?

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

CMT Association

Investopedia

Chief Investment Officer and Behavioral Investment Counselor

Optuma

"Overhead supply" is not good.
And that's what we've got right now.

Last week's rally was great, 
but now we've got overhead supply.

Our monthly video analysis gets into this.
This is just a short clip, hope it helps.

Supply & Demand
That's basic Econ 101.

Demand is easy to see.
If the price is going up ... demand.

But what about supply?
Look up and to the left of price.

If you see an empty chart,
then there's no supply.

If you see trades / candles, etc.
that's "overhead supply".

As price rises after a correction,
It frequently faces pressure from supply.

The reality is this:
the economy is VERY finely balanced right now.

There's a strong argument:
most companies are NOT thriving.
They have been surviving for some time.

I go into this in the video.
You can watch the full video on our channel.

I will post the link in the comments.
Be sure to subscribe to the channel.

Here's the point:
If the economy was strong,
I'd be less concerned about the supply.

But, from what I see,
the economy is finely balanced.

I do think it's POSSIBLE to get a recession.
I don't think it'll happen, but it's possible.

This is why we manage wealth as we do.
We don't have to guess correctly.

We just follow the evidence.
And actively manage our exposure to risk.

That's actively managing wealth.
There's too much at stake to do otherwise.


❓ You increasing your cardio this week to combat last week's binge? As for me, I did not binge ... but I'm still working off that Chicago Deep Dish pizza I tried for the first time while at the NAAIM conference.

~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

There is a big divergence in the markets.
However, I do not believe it'll lead to a recession.


First, I am not making a prediction.
We do not make predictions.

We sure as heck don't manage money that way.
There is just no reason to do that ...

At least not anymore.
There used to be a lot of justification for it.

But not anymore.
(Read my book if you want to know why.)

Yesterday, I shot a short video for YouTube.
I go into a little depth about two things:

1st - The divergence in the markets ...
It's been getting worse.

2nd - The data doesn't point to a recession.
The average American is quite healthy.

At least financially.

So while the divergence is pretty bad,
and while that's NOT good news,
it could resolve itself.

Well, it WILL get resolved.

If it resolves negatively ...
I like our defensive process.

If it resolves positively ...
I like our chances there too. 

So, in the meantime,
ignore the news.


❓What do you think? Do you think we'll see a recession soon?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

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