Stealth Startup

Building the only software platform that helps brands exit the ROAS hamster wheel and get to 50% of budgets going to brand, which is the proven mix, but a faaaar cry from the 0-3% of budgets most brands are putting towards brand / top of funnel. 

The growth of your dreams lies in the gap between how you currently measure ROI and how you could be measuring it.

Co-Founder

Chubbies Shorts

Board Member

Loop

With a bunch of other people smarter than me, helped shape the initial product based on our needs and vision for what should exist.

Drata

Investor

Odeko

CaaStle

Cents

My own

Real Estate Investment and Development

Blend

Rutherford Investments

Private Equity

Cofounder of Chubbies + Loop Returns | Now, Marathon: A managed technology platform + bespoke services offering helping you exit the short-term direct-response hamster wheel to find your balance of Brand and performance

I cofounded Chubbies. $100M exit. 40% growth at 25% EBITDA margins.

But 5 years in, we almost died.

Why? We were addicted to short-term ROAS. Only investing where we could measure immediate returns. It worked until it didn't. Growth stalled. Nothing we tried moved the needle.

The problem: We'd stopped building our brand. We'd lost what made people love us because we couldn't measure its impact.

So we built our own measurement system. What we discovered changed everything:

Moving from 3% to 50% brand investment unlocked growth we hadn't seen since year one.

That shift saved our business and drove our acquisition.

Now I'm building Marathon - the software platform that finally measures top-of-funnel ROI. Because every brand deserves to escape the performance marketing hamster wheel that almost killed us.

Here's what Marathon does:

1. Quantifies future revenue from brand investments
2. Proves the ROI your CFO needs to see
3. Shows you the optimal brand/performance split (hint: it's not 97/3)

If you're stuck refreshing ROAS dashboards while growth flatlines, you're exactly where we were.

The difference? You don't have to guess your way out.

Apply for early access: marathondataco.com

Preston 🩳 Rutherford

CEO: I can't approve "brand marketing" spend in 2026 if I can't measure the return, even if it's needed to get out of stage 3

New CMO: i agree. i think brand marketing is bullsh*t

CEO: what?

CMO: when CFOs and CEOs hear "brand marketing", they think: unaccountable, expensive, and money wasting. the vocab's gotta change

CEO: you're not wrong

CMO: it's a classic story...team gets approval to do a "brand campaign". they go off, find an agency, create an expensive ad, and run it on tv. then they wait. ultimately, everyone ends up asking: so...what happened?

CEO: happening as we speak

CMO: then, that one-off attempt gets chalked up as a loss, and future attempts get rejected because of the sour taste left in everyone's mouths

CEO: just did that 10 minutes ago

CMO: let's fix that by orienting the brand conversation around the specific business outcomes we want

CEO: yas queen slay

CMO: your 3 associations with traditional, Mad Men style advertising has truth to it, so you're not off base

CEO: might be why we've adhered to short term revenue as the key definition of success for so long. the trauma from that show is real

CMO: same - was shooketh

CEO: i'm accountable to the board for delivering financial results, so everything this company does has to ladder up to that

CMO: and that's how we have to frame marketing

CEO: great. the main goal for 2026 is sustainable profitability

CMO: so let's drill down on the 3 business results that best accomplish that goal. first, do you agree that being able to discount less and not lose customers helps us get more profitable?

CEO: obvi

CMO: second, since you know how much higher the revenue-per-session of branded organic search traffic is, would you agree we want to increase it as much as we can?

CEO: lowkey getting interrogation vibes, but yes

CMO: and third, we want to be able to expand into wholesale and show up the way we want, right?

CEO: just spoke with another founder. it's their most profitable channel

CMO: finally, do you think the "product, discount, offer, and urgency-driven" creative we use accomplishes these goals?

CEO: you sly dog. i see what you did there. no, definitely not

CMO: now that we're on the same page, let's talk execu...

CEO: (interrupting) it's finally clicking. lemme freestyle on the mic for a sec

CMO: great (starts beatboxing)

CEO: like every goal we've accomplished as a brand, the tactics were never immediately obvious. we committed to a feedback loop and tried things to reach that goal. our approach was simple: do more of what works. for "brand", we were never clear on the specific financial results we aimed to drive, so we didn't have a feedback loop. attempts fell flat and were viewed as a failure. while specific tactics aren't immediately obvious here either, we're used to that. we'll apply the same process we've applied throughout our history

CMO: (happy tears) that. was. beautiful. didn't rhyme, and you didn't rap at all, but you got a grammy in my heart

Cofounder of Chubbies, Loop Returns, and now MarathonDataCo.com (AKA everything you need to transition to a balance Brand and Performance)

Chubbies Shorts did > $100M & > 20% EBITDA for the 9 months ended Sept 30, 2025. 

Rainer and the whole team is crushing it!!

New CMO: We're moving 50% of the budget to brand / top of funnel in 2026.  

VP Growth: Hell no. My ROAS will drop, and my bonus depends on hitting a ROAS target.  

New CMO: Not anymore. Your bonus is tied to two metrics:  
1. Total contribution dollars generated by the business (at 35% contribution margin).  
2. Contribution dollar lifetime value (rolling 30, 60, 180, and 365 days) for our owned business.  

VP Growth: wtf?! How can I own this?  

New CMO: Metrics aren't about individual ownership—they're team-driven. The real challenge is choosing the right ones.  

VP Growth: How do we know these are the right metrics? 

New CMO: The right metrics grow business health and fundamental enterprise value. If we increase these metrics, while keeping fixed costs flat, we become more profitable. Are they perfect? Maybe not. But they're miles better than short-term ROAS or new customers acquired, which have far less of a direct connection to fundamental business health when we increase those numbers.

VP Growth: How can you say that? 

New CMO: For ROAS, you can hit any number by:  

1. Spending less.  
2. Doubling down on branded keywords, existing customers, or retargeting.  
3. Running more discount events.  

But ROAS lacks incentives to drive incremental revenue—what actually grows the business—and says nothing about the cost to generate it. And for new customers acquired, there is no notion of customer quality. A massive sale drives high ROAS but attracts discount hunters who won't buy at full price unless we run bigger sales. Both of these metrics lack context on quality and long term profit, which is ultimately the fundamental goal of business. 

VP Growth: Ok, I'll buy that, but how can I be responsible for overall contribution dollars? 

New CMO: As a singular individual, you can't. That's why half of your budget will now be based on team performance. For you though, it'll drive you to make better decisions with how you spend our marketing dollars

VP Growth: What do you mean? 

New CMO: You're free from short-term ROAS pressure to pad stats and can focus on incremental profitable growth. You can step back and do the things you know are right to drive net new incremental demand (meaning: you would not have gotten that revenue if you didn't spend that ad dollar) even if it's low ROAS.

VP Growth: And the mythical purse string holders are bought in? 

New CMO: Yup - the CFO and board now understand that the real goal for our marketing investments is both short and long term incremental contribution dollar generation at the highest possible contribution margin. That was my one condition for agreeing to accept the offer to join

VP Growth: Well butter my biscuits, let's do this.  

New CMO: Please never say that again

3 minutes and 3 seconds. That's all it takes to learn from the best investor on why Brand is the most important driver of business value. If you're debating if, why or how investing in Brand building is right for your company, look no further than this compilation of Warren Buffett quotes from interviews over the last 50 years on why investing in Brand is the single most important thing you can do.

While in the day-to-day of operating a company, it can seem foolish to invest in this mythical, hard-to-define thing called "Brand".

However, if we listen to the most successful judge of fundamental business asset value over the last century, it's clear that a strong Brand is the most important thing.

Here are the 5 topics, the 5 takeaways and the best quotes from the video


5 Topics:

1. Why Brand is the most important moat 
2. Why Brand is the most important driver of business value, 
3. The tangible benefits of a strong Brand in terms of pricing power, 
4. Maintaining margin and shelf space in retailers, and 
5. How a strong Brand is the only thing that can fend of inevitable competition.


5 Takeaways:

1. Brands are Moats
2. Single Most important thing he looks for are defensible Moats
3. The main Moat is Owning a Position in the consumer's Mind
4. A durable moat, driven by a strong Brand enables 
 a) sustainable Pricing Power (AKA the ability to not need to discount)
 b) the best defense against competition 
 c) leverage in the Brand <> retailer relationship 
5. Ultimately, Brand is the best driver of durable Profits


The Best Quotes:

On Brand:
1. "Brands are moats" 
2. "A strong Brand is really potent stuff."
3. "[The Moat] can be because...of its position in the consumer's mind...that it has this moat around it."
4. "So you've got to protect a Brand, you've got to enhance it in every way. You've got to get a promise in people's minds that gets delivered that way."

On the Importance of Moats: 
1. "What we're trying to do is we're trying to find a business with a wide and long lasting moat around it, protecting a terrific economic castle." 
2. "In essence, that's what business is all about."

On Brand and Pricing Power:
1. "The single-most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you've got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you've got a very good business." 
2. “You can measure the strength of a business over time by the agony they go through in determining whether a price increase can be sustained.”
3. "It's not a great business when you have to have a prayer session before you raise your prices a penny."

On Brand as defense against competition from other Brands and retailers:
1. "The Brand has to stand for something in the consumer's mind because, in the end, the retailer may want to shift to a house Brand."
2. "I remember when Sam Walton sent me the first six-pack of Sam's Cola 20 years ago. And believe me, Walmart has plenty of power, but so does Coca Cola and the Brand."

Chubbies has done over $100M so far this year, increasing EBITDA margin > 50% YoY. Your classic overnight success that took 14 years. One of the many things they do so well to continually drive balanced, profitable growth where margins can * increase * over time is follow the 95/5 rule as well as any brand I’ve seen. 


However, for the first 5 years, I basically did the exact opposite of what the rule says. My loss is your gain, so here are:


1) Three things I learned about the 95/5 rule
2) Three ways you can update your thinking on the topic
3) Three things you can do about this right now


let's do it.


** Three things I learned about the 95/5 rule **


1. Only 5% of the people who see your content on a daily basis (AKA your potential buyers) are in-market to buy right now. That means 95% of the buyers you reach are out-of-market and won’t buy for months or even years. 


2. And, nope, no matter how awesome your direct response offer is, you cannot persuade the buyer to go in-market because they already have what you’re selling and won’t need a newer version any time soon. We don’t move buyers in-market – buyers move themselves in-market based on their needs.


3. All the direct-response conversion-focused dollars we spend are only relevant to the 5% of folks. This was especially humbling when realizing that ~95% of our spend allocation went to direct response (see reference above re: doing the exact opposite). 






** Three ways you can update your thinking on the topic ** 


1. Our goal is to increase the probability that the brand comes to mind when the buyer goes in-market, NOT to persuade the buyer to go in market. You can’t push buyers down a funnel, but you can, to quote Professor Jenni Romaniuk, “catch buyers as they fall”.


2. ""People largely use their memories when buying, rather than searching. Simply put, the brand that gets remembered is the brand that gets bought."" - John Dawes of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute


3. Since marketing works by influencing future buyers, think about developing creative that gets noticed and gets remembered -- gives you permission to be bold, put on a show and have a little fun.




** Three things you can do about it right now ** 


1. Since we've all been so focused on optimizing the hell out of how we convert the 5%, we need to reacquaint ourselves with the 95%. Walk a day in the shoes of the 95% to develop the empathy needed to effectively speak to that person. 


2. Put together a plan to gradually shift your marketing investments to match the reality of the 95/5 rule. It could take all of 2024. No need to rush.


3. Take a day with your team. Remove all meetings. From a blank slate, think about what it means to do things that get remembered, that get noticed. What does it mean for your brand to be bold, to put on a show, and to have a little bit of fun? 


enjoy

CMO: we need to do a brand reset in 2026

CEO: wtf does that mean? like a new logo?

CMO: no. that'd be a rebrand. not what i'm talking about

CEO: then what?

CMO: first, let's define terms: the strength of our brand is ultimately measured in two ways: first, the customer acquisition we get when we turn everything off (e.g., ads, discounts, etc). second, our ability to raise prices (or reduce discounts) faster than the rate of inflation and not lose customers 

CEO: never thought about it that way. go on

CMO: the fundamentals of our business are weakening, even though we're growing revenue

CEO: well, we need growth

CMO: i know we don't like to talk about it, but if we turned off our facebook ads and our promos, our revenue would fall through the floor. it's been getting progressively worse over the last 6 years, and we're not acknowledging how big of an issue it is

CEO: i acknowledge that's an issue. i'm not as close to the marketing numbers, so what exactly do you mean?

CMO: over the last 6 years, the revenue coming from branded organic search traffic (removing spikes and short term influences) on our online store have actually been steadily declining

CEO: but we've been growing

CMO: yes, we've only been growing the revenue coming from paid channels. we've been spending ad dollars to fuel our growth. that's fine if the revenue coming from organic sources is also keeping up, but it's not

CEO: i don't follow

CMO: we've been chasing these topline revenue growth numbers that i've allocated all of our resources (ad spend, creative budgets, etc) to driving highly-measurable short term revenue growth. this became a red flag for me last week when our facebook ads stopped delivering for 2 days and we had the worst August week 3 in the history of the company

CEO: oh that's what happened?! i thought we had a bug blocking checkout or something. site was working fine?

CMO: site was fine

CEO: yikes. so do you now think our Q4 revenue number is in jeopardy?

CMO: we can hit the revenue number

CEO: great!

CMO: but we'll just be kicking the can down the road

CEO: what do you mean?

CMO: you know how i've been doing those P&L deep dives with fred (CFO) to isolate why our contribution margin has been going down?

CEO: yes, but we've got big COGS improvements coming in '26 that will take that number up

CMO: unfortunately, my latest rev of the forecast has our marketing costs more than canceling out gains from COGS improvements. we can only lean on existing customers for so long. we've already been over-emailing and sms-ing our list, especially existing customers. i don't know how much longer that can last

CEO: so what do we do?

CMO: two words...brand reset. 4 parts: 1) data deep dive to understand the true state of our revenue, 2) right-size cost structure to match the reality, 3) build our content machine, 4) systematically hack away at ways to build that resilient revenue base

CEO: sounds horrible. gonna be the best worst thing ever

CMO: yup

CFO: Brand building is just burning money. Prove me wrong.

CMO: Five landmark studies about to wreck that theory.

CFO: Pics or it didn't happen.

CMO: The Ehrenberg-Bass Institute analyzed thousands of brands over decades. Found something wild. *slacks link* https://lnkd.in/gzCGDYcr

CFO: In the words of my good friend Ron Burgundy, "you know I don't speak Spanish."

CMO: Well, let me translate: Only 5% of potential customers are shopping right now. We're fighting everyone for that same 5%.

CFO: But those 5% convert.

CMO: At 3x the cost and much lower margin than organic buyers.

CFO: What about the other 95%?

CMO: Les Binet and Peter Field studied 50 years of financial data across 500+ brands. Here's the research https://lnkd.in/g7zEiXzN and a vid that breaks it down https://lnkd.in/gE_jnrEu

CFO: You keep using this word 'brand building.' I do not think it means what you think it means.

CMO: The fastest-growing brands all do the same thing: 60% brand building, 40% conversion tactics.

CFO: I'm gonna need to see more proof.

CMO: UCLA's Dominique Hanssens and Prof. dr. Koen Pauwels analyzed 10 years of data from 150 global brands. Here's the research https://lnkd.in/guRrkkvw and a vid breakdown https://lnkd.in/gmG6KuEG

CFO: Explain it to me like I'm five.

CMO: Direct link between brand building and future revenue growth. The data hits different.

CFO: Keep going...

CMO: Byron Sharp studied every major category globally. Found two things predict growth. Here's the research paper https://lnkd.in/gJgB5rYn and a quick vid recap https://lnkd.in/giEPYWuY

CFO: Hit me with the TL;DR.

CMO: Being remembered when people are ready to buy, and being available where they want to shop.

CFO: But how do we measure that?

CMO: James Hankins and Binet cracked that code analyzing digital behavior from 30,000 brands. Check the research https://lnkd.in/g5mevQyb and the whitepaper https://lnkd.in/gqihiqfp

CFO: Numbers or it didn't happen.

CMO: Digital behaviors predict future sales. When someone searches for our brand by name, the revenue per session is 2x higher and margin is much higher than direct purchases from ads.

CFO: Now that's the kind of data I like.

CMO: The numbers understood the assignment.

CFO: What's step one?

CMO: Track our key digital behaviors. Create content that drives those metrics.

CFO: The data hath spoken.

CMO: Welcome to the Brand side. We have statistically significant cookies.

CFO: As long as there's a 95% chance they're delicious.

I was early Marketing at Uber spending 5 years building Brand, Performance, and Lifecycle Marketing Data Science teams. I got to work with & learn from world-class marketing, data science, and martech leaders. Over the course of my career there I've measured over $1Bn in Marketing Spend and estimate that I've helped drive $200M+ in incremental revenue and cost savings . 

Then I moved on to a few early stage startups and scaleups (both as a FTE and Consultant) where I learned how to be even scrappier when building Marketing. 

Now I help Marketers make smarter decisions through my newsletter & podcast on Consumer Tech Marketing with how-to guides, case studies, and stories. 

I'm doing this because I love the marketing stories and people behind it in a world where Product seems to get most of the credit. There's so much magic in Marketing and I want to share more about it. 

Check it out here → https://experimental.beehiiv.com/

Outside of my newsletter and podcast, I love spending time with my 2 beautiful kids and my incredible wife in Amsterdam. We used to love traveling and eating out but you know... kids ...  so now I love cooking and exploring all the fun things little kids can do!

Sundar Swaminathan

One of the hardest things about having kids has been reconciling my professional identity before vs after. 

Before, I cared so much about my career. 

Being raised Indian and American, what I did defined who I was.

Even as a kid, you’re asked “what do you want to be when you grow up?” 

“Doctor. President. Astronaut”

What you wanted to BE was what you DID. 

Early career, I’d chase promotions and titles and cared about so many small things. 

Post kids, I couldn’t give a sh*t. 

And I don’t mean I want to do sh*t work. 

I still have pride in my work. 

I mean I don’t care whether I get that next promotion or whether I am “changing the world” or working on something cool. 

I don’t have career ambitions. 

I just want to hang out with my kids. 

And I am working to live not living to work. 

But the gap between how much I care about my kids vs my career is widening. 

So much so that I now have an aversion to the idea of going back to a job. 

Like actually disgusted. 

Lol my friends have described this as me just having a “mid life crisis” but I think it’s something deeper.

It’s an existential one. 

One where everything I had been working for 15 years towards now carries zero meaning and significance in my current view of life.

Former Head of Marketing Science at Uber where I optimized $1Bn+ in spend across Brand, Performance, and Lifecycle → ✏️ & 🎙️ on Growth and Marketing in Consumer Tech

No alternative text description for this image

I’ve been using A.I. for over 30 years.

I use it for literally everything:

- Writing this post 
- Finding new recipes
- SQL when I was an FTE
- Speeches when I present 

The list goes on and on. 

But the weird thing is every time I tell someone I’ve been using A.I. that long they question me. 

They call me a liar.

That I’m just saying it for the likes. 

It hurts. 

But I can’t do anything to change. 

I was born with Average Intelligence. 

I was born with A.I. 

It’s who I am. 

Note: this post was written with A.I.

Former Head of Brand Science at Uber | Optimized $1Bn+ of Marketing | Author and host of experiMENTAL ✏️ & 🎙️ on Marketing Strategy and Science

CEO: Simple question.Should we do brand marketing?

CMO: Simple answer. Will you give me 6 months without pulling the plug?

CEO: That's a long time.

CMO: That's likely how long it takes to see brand impact compound. If you'll panic before then I'm not going to even bother. 

CEO: What happens at month 6?

CMO: Your performance CAC will do one of two things:
1. We either keep the same volume and lower CAC 
OR
2. We keep the same CAC and do higher volume. 

Depends on what our strategy and goals are.

CEO: How do we know it's working before? 

CMO: Proxy metrics, share of search starting to go up, increased "direct" traffic.

CEO: Those sound fluffy...

CMO: This is exactly why I asked for 6 months of you backing off, but here's another question for you that might change your mind. 

Are you happy with the current performance?

CEO: HECK NO! 1. We're burning profit 2. Our CACs are skyrocketing 3. The quality of users is really going down. 

CMO: And why do you think that is?

CEO: Idk.

CMO: I do. We ran out of people that know about our product after we picked all the low hanging fruit. 

CEO: Ugh that sounds right. We've been in market for a few years.

CMO: Exactly, but our product is awesome and we love it and we need more people to know about it.

CEO: Hmmm that makes sense to me.

CMO: Here's the best part... our competitors aren't doing this which means we can get a head start and start building a moat that both improves our growth AND slows theres down.

CEO: Ohhhhhh siiiiiick! Okay, you're right! Let's f*cking go! 

CMO: Heck yes... just remember...6 months. 

--
🔔 Follow Sundar for Marketing Strategy & Science
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CMO: We need to invest in marketing data science. 

CEO: Why now? What changed?

CMO: We did. At Series A, we had 1 channel and 1 market. Now we have 3 channels across 10 countries.

CEO: So just add more rows to the dashboard.

CMO: Not good enough. The measurement approach that got us here breaks at our current scale.

CEO: What do you mean breaks?

CMO: At Series A, I could eyeball attribution and make calls. Now, channels are cannibalizing each other, and I can't tell which ones are actually driving incremental growth.

CEO: Give me an example.

CMO: We're spending in paid social and paid search. Both show great ROAS. But when we scale one up, the other's conversions drop. They're fighting over the same customers.

CEO: So what do we need?

CMO: Incrementality testing. Holdouts. Geo experiments. The stuff that actually measures causation, not just correlation. But, I can't do it myself because I don't know how to. We need to bring in data science.

CEO: That sounds expensive.

CMO: Way cheaper than wasting budget on channels that aren't working. At our scale, a 10% measurement error is a seven-figure mistake.

CEO: Why didn't we need this before?

CMO: At Series A, our biggest risk was moving too slow. At Series C, it's moving confidently in the wrong direction.

CEO: How do justify upgrading our measurement?

CMO: The cost of being wrong is bigger than the cost of certainty. We're past that point.

CEO: Alright. What do you need from me?

CMO: Budget for proper testing infrastructure including data engineering and patience for answers that take weeks not hours.

CEO: Done. Now why are you texting me at 2AM?
 
CMO: Because wasted marketing spend never rests. 

--
🔔 Follow @Sundar for Marketing Strategy & Science
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CEO: I need 30% more keeping CAC flat by Q3. 

CMO: Sorry, that would break physics. 

CEO: What do you mean?

CMO: Between high volume, fast speed, and low cost, you can only pick two. 

CEO: Explain more.

CMO: Sure thing. If we want:

High volume + fast speed → High cost

The only way to pump up volume quickly is inject more spend but it'll be inefficient and so cost will spike.

High volume + low cost → Slow speed

To get high volume at low costs we'll need to do everything from better campaign structures, experimentation, data pipelines, and even upper funnel campaigns. That'll take time.

Fast speed + low cost → Low volume

If we need to get to lower costs quickly, the easiest way to do that is to cut spend which means low volume. 

CEO: So there's no way to get high volume, fast speed, and low cost?!

CMO: No. My hands are tied. It's literally Marketing physics. Anyone, including your other CEO friends, that says they can do this is lying or hiding something. 

CEO: Crap. Are there other laws of Marketing physics?

CMO: Yes. At least four more. You should read this article by Sundar. He writes about Marketing Strategy and Science from his time at Uber.

CEO: Sounds great. Send it over.

CMO: Here you go → https://lnkd.in/gG3UkXnm

Jr Marketer: Hey, I'd love to become more data driven 
Manager: *slacks 10 articles below*
Jr Marketer: *1 day later...* Whoa. 🤯. IQ +1000

--

1. Everyone tells Marketers to be more data-driven, but not everyone knows where to start. Here are 10 of the most common analytics terms that's a good starting place.
https://lnkd.in/gZA9-wce

2. We need to get smarter about measuring marketing and here are 5 different tactics we can use to measure what we're doing.
https://lnkd.in/gw3mXHGh

3. MAU is a KPI for us but we've been measuring it all wrong. This is one of my favorites on hwo to properly calculate MAU.
https://lnkd.in/g9MEku7h

4. As we transition to increasing personalization and need smarter segmentation, I really reading how Uber did it with their 600M+ customers.
https://lnkd.in/gHXiYMSg

5. We're coming up in 2026 planning and this one helped me shape how we're going to be doing planning and target setting for our team. 
https://lnkd.in/gmH8VV8T

6. Given we don't always have analytics resources at our disposal this one is great for when we need to run a pre / post analysis ourselves. It's not about perfection but just slightly smarter decisions.
https://lnkd.in/gbbw4yz7

7. We know how important LTV is to everything we're doing but turns out we had been doing it all wrong. I took this article to our Finance team and we've rebuilt it.
https://lnkd.in/gxUqcxcw

8. This one is just WHOA! This article is why we've added a measurement strategy to our campaign briefs and why our data science team loves working with us again.
https://lnkd.in/gPrr-tAF

9. This is a complement to the LTV article above but it's how we're defining CAC moving forward. It helped me align with Finance and why we're now BFFS.
https://lnkd.in/gmvsqxvF

10. This is just a fun article on how Duolingo turned around slow growth and grew 900% by being more data driven
https://lnkd.in/gWDnDj9X

Former Head of Brand Science at Uber | Author and host of experiMENTAL ✏️ & 🎙️ on Growth and Marketing in Consumer Tech

CFO: Our attribution model is amazing!

New CMO: Nice! I won’t be using it much. 

CFO: What? This cost us a ton of $$

CMO: It tells us what happened, not what we caused.

CFO: What’s the difference?

CMO: Attribution says Facebook drove 1,000 conversions last month. It doesn’t tell us how many of those 1,000 would’ve converted anyway without Facebook.

CFO: Wait. You’re saying the model is wrong?

CMO: I’m saying it’s precise and useless. It gives us confidence in the wrong answer.

CFO: How is that possible?

CMO: Because customers see ads everywhere. Attribution gives credit. Incrementality measures impact. Facebook might get last-click credit, but the customer already decided to buy after seeing our TV spot.

CFO: So we’ve been optimizing for the wrong thing?

CMO: We’ve been optimizing for who gets credit, not who deserves it.

CFO: Then what should we be using?

CMO: Holdout tests. Geo experiments. Incrementality studies. They’re messier, take longer, but actually tell us what’s working.

CFO: Why didn’t we start with that?

CMO: I don’t know but I just got here. Most of the time we confuse precision for confidence.

CFO: I’d rather be roughly right than precisely wrong.

CMO: That’s the mindset shift. We’re gonna fix this! 
–
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Who reads my newsletter on Marketing in Consumer tech? 

Marketers in consumer tech. 
Also data scientist.
And founders. 

When I set out to write this newsletter, the biggest doubt I had (which is most people’s fear) is that no one would read it.

I’d just be writing into a void and while it gave me joy, it wouldn’t be a business. 

Almost 50 articles later and a year into it, I know that’s no longer true. 

50+ articles. 
2,800 readers.
60% open rate. 

And most importantly?! 

The audience I’m writing for is who reads it.

Marketing leaders across the funnel from Brand to lifecycle at companies like Uber, DoorDash, Apple, AirBNB, Spotify, Google and so many more. 

It’s just motivating to be able to take a step back and see the daily efforts translate to something. 

Anyway, Im excited and think my best work is yet to come. 

Thank you to everyone that supports me! 

Onwards and upwards.

CMO: We need to A/B test this launch!

Me: We can't. But here's what we can do...

Propensity matching.

CMO: Wait, why can't we A/B test?

Me: I don't think we want to hide the launch of our loyalty program from 50% of our users. 

CMO: Fair point. But, I'm being asked to show the ROI of the loyalty program. Will we be able to do that?

Me: Yes! We can use propensity matching.

CMO: Say more fam.

Me: So in a normal A/B test, we randomize users before and then measure the difference. 

Propensity matching is the opposite.

We start by looking at the users we want to analyze, which in this case is everyone who signed up for the loyalty program.

Then we look at everyone who USED to behave the same but didn't sign up for the loyalty program.

Then we measure the difference in their behaviors. 

Here's an example:
User 1 starts as an X then becomes a O.
User 2 starts as an X and stays as an X. 
We measure the difference between O and X. 

X → O (Treatment)
X → X (Control)

CMO: Woah! Basically it's a way for us to compare more apples to apples without an A/B test.

Me: Yes, exactly. 

CMO: This is awesome. Thanks for saving my a*s

Me: No problem. If you want to read more check out this article I sent to 2,800+ Marketers → https://lnkd.in/gcHsSpqy

CMO: Damn, we are not data driven at all.

CEO: What do you mean?! I've tried to be since day 1!

CMO: Because no one changes their mind based on the data.

CEO: I don't understand. We hired data scientists. We have dashboards everywhere. How are we not data-driven?

CMO: Again, because no one changes their mind based on the data.

CEO: That's not true. We look at reports every week.

CMO: Looking at data isn't the same as being driven by it.

CEO: What's the difference?

CMO: Last month, we tested two pricing models. The data showed Model B was 8% better. We still went with Model A.

CEO: We had strategic reasons for that.

CMO: Exactly. That's being opinion-driven with data decoration. Nothing wrong with it, but let's not pretend it's something else.

CEO: So what does data-driven actually look like?

CMO: It means you make the uncomfortable decision when data contradicts your intuition. Most companies can't stomach that.

CEO: Give me another example.

CMO: Our best performing acquisition channel according to dashboards? I wanted to cut it. You pushed back because "it's always worked." That's not data-driven.

CEO: But you didn't have proof it wasn't working.

CMO: Our team had a solid analysis that suggested it was plus experience. We wanted to run an incrementality test proving it out. You wanted more proof. That's the problem. Data-driven companies trust the data AND run tests to confirm hypotheses. You just wanted a narrative that felt right.

CEO: This is uncomfortable to hear.

CMO: I know. It’s not easy for me to says That's how we know we're getting somewhere. We say we want data-driven culture but actually want data-supported decisions.

CEO: What's it take to actually become data-driven?

CMO: Start saying "the data changed my mind" more than "the data confirms what I thought." Been reading Sundar's posts on this. He calls out the theater constantly.

CEO: This Sundar guy is on to something. Send me his LI profile.

CMO: Sent below 
--
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New CMO: Why do we separate brand and performance?

CEO: Because they’re different things.

CMO: How so?

CEO: Brand is long-term and hard to measure. Performance is short-term and drives revenue. We split the budget 30/70 to keep it clean.

CMO: That’s the problem. You’re acting like they work in isolation.

CEO: They don’t?

CMO: Our performance channels work better when brand awareness is high. And brand campaigns drive some immediate conversions. They’re not separate games.

CEO: So how should we think about them?

CMO: Stop asking “is this brand or performance?” Start asking “what’s the full impact of this investment?”

CEO: That sounds complicated.

CMO: It is. But pretending they’re separate is why companies think brand doesn’t work.

CEO: Explain.

CMO: We run a brand campaign. Performance metrics don’t move much immediately. You call it a failure. But we didn’t measure if it lowered our CAC or improved conversion rates on paid channels.

CEO: How would we measure that?

CMO: Geo holdouts. Test brand in some markets and not others. Then measure the impact on all channels, not just brand-attributed conversions.

CEO: Why doesn’t every company do this?

CMO: Because it’s easier to keep them in silos. Brand team reports on awareness. Performance team reports on ROAS. No one connects the dots.

CEO: We’ve been doing exactly that.

CMO: I know. Time to change it up. 
–
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experiMENTAL Newsletter & Podcast  has 500 downloads! 

If you’re a consumer tech marketer looking to learn what works class teams are doing, I biasedly think this is the best place to start.

I cover everything from brand building to deep data science with leaders from Uber , Spotify , Anthropic , Wayfair , and so many more amazing companies! 

I’m now up to 10 episodes out too so you don’t need to just listen to one episode and then get sad you can’t keep bingeing. 

Start listening now: https://lnkd.in/gFGjqJ3e

Or watch : https://lnkd.in/g8VPT8MD

Here are 4 stories from my time leading Uber's Brand Data Science team that will change your mind about the impact of Brand Marketing:

All of these stories are empirical with data backed causal studies and not theoretical. 

1. DoorDash kicks our b*tt
In 2018, UberEATS and DoorDash were neck in neck in the US. 

Now? It has 66% marketshare.

The most readily obvious reasons are selection and focusing on suburbs. These are definitely primary reasons but they also outspent us on Brand Marketing early. 

They were on TV and OOH faster and bigger which is exactly where suburban audiences consume and it made them the entrenched preference.

The UberEATS team is world class but once that brand moat sets in it becomes a tough uphill battle. 

2. Needing to be always on

We ran a brand campaign in the UK where we were testing a new concept for Uber as a whole.

During the campaign, awareness went up massively. 

Think XX%. Signups did too across Rides and Eats.

But we then had to pause the campaign and within a month that awareness came plummeting back to the pre campaign base line. 

And signups? You guessed it. 📉

We then advocated for always on budget. 

3. Know where your audience is

In India, we were launching a new campaign around women's safety in Uber Auto.

The classic perf marketing channels work but not as well as other channels especially in dense cities in India and we wanted the message to be more public.

So OOH and TV were where we invested and we saw Auto trips go up by 6% within a short period. 

4. In Australia, we went all in with a campaign called "Tonight I'll be Eating" for UberEATS that featured Kim Kardashian and a well known Australian comedian. 

The campaign took off! 

We were hitting record bests and the impact was immediate cementing our place as the #1 app in Australia.

I've got a dozen more stories, but the point is as someone who was lucky enough to causally measure these campaigns, I got to see the impact of Brand at a scale that no other marketing type can touch. 

Brand campaigns have massive impact.

You just need to figure out how.
--
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Sebastian Hewing 🚀 is my next guest on experiMENTAL Newsletter & Podcast! 

He's a data and AI advisor to VC and PE-backed startups after working at some of the fastest growing startups ever with Rocket Internet SE.

On today's episode we chat about: 
• how to build data setups that empower, not babysit, your stakeholders
• a three-step framework that’s helped 40+ companies
• best traits of high-leverage your first analytics hire
• why solution-first thinking fails data teams

My favorite quotes from our conversation:

"I always implement a role that I call the super user, which
is a role that that I think is lacking in a lot of data setups and causes all kinds of problems."

"I think it's a very poetic point. The data advisor is not coming in for the data analyst they're coming for to help out another function."

"I think there's the pre AI problems and then there's the pre AI challenges and then there's the additional challenges that come with everything that's happening around AI."

Sebastian is by far one of the best data leaders I've had the pleasure of chatting with and if you're either a data leader looking to uplevel or a stakeholder looking to learn how to best implement data practices, this one's for you.

Tune in wherever you love listening to podcasts:
Listen: https://lnkd.in/ebSGnypU
Watch: https://lnkd.in/gPacUgjP
Subscribe: https://lnkd.in/gPacUgjP

CEO: Revenue is up but margins are down?!

New CMO: Yup, we’re just renting growth.

CEO: Explain. 

CMO: There’s a difference between earning growth and renting it.

When you started, CAC was $50 and customers had strong word-of-mouth. We were earning growth. Now CAC is $120 and referrals are flat. We’re renting it and paying the paid tax. 

CEO: So we’re spending more to acquire customers?

CMO: Worse. We’re spending more to acquire lower-quality customers. The easy audience is tapped out.

CEO: How do you know they’re lower quality?

CMO: Day 30 retention dropped from 60% to 45%. LTV is down 25%. We’re hitting diminishing returns on paid channels.

CEO: What happens if we keep scaling spend?

CMO: Revenue goes up. Profitability goes down. Eventually, we’re growing unprofitably, and the board pulls the plug.

CEO: So we stop spending?

CMO: No. We need to slow down marketing. We fix the unit economics first. Better onboarding, improved retention, stronger referral mechanics. We also need to invest in Brand Marketinf after. Then we scale again. 

CEO: Why can’t we do both at the same time?

CMO: Because resources, priorities, and bad growth masks the problem. If revenue is climbing, no one feels urgency to fix retention. Then one day, the channels stop working and we realize we built on sand.

CEO: How do we know when we’ve hit this wall?

CMO: When CAC is rising faster than LTV. When our payback period gets too long. That’s the signal.
–
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Measuring marketing is NOT about the latest and greatest tools.

A successful strategy has 4 components: 

1. Goals
2. People
3. Culture
4. Channels

Goals 
⮑ What is the business trying to accomplish? 
⮑ How does Marketing fit in?

People
⮑ What skillsets do you have?
⮑ What's the hiring roadmap look like? 

Culture
⮑ Are you willing to experiment?
⮑ Does leadership understand the risks?

Channels
⮑ What are the main channels used?
⮑ Are we launching new ones?

If you find yourself struggling to prove the ROI of Marketing, take a step back and figure out which of these 4 places is lacking. 

The most successful Marketing Science teams start at the top. 

The tools are never the answer. 

What’s the number one thing you focus on to implement an effective measurement strategy? 

--
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This visual perfectly captures what building experiMENTAL Newsletter & Podcast has felt like.

After my short stint as an FTE this year, I was super stoked to go full steam ahead on my newsletter and podcast about Marketing in Consumer Tech. 

It let me chase the joy of sharing everything I've learned in my career while having the ultimate flexibility to hang out with my kids and wife.

But then you run your family's financial model.

And reality sets in that your passion has to be a business.

Writing an article goes from shipping for fun to shipping and tracking if people opened, read, and converted. I'm microanalyzing every survey response or piece of feedback. 

It sucks the fun out of writing and I couldn't put my finger on why until I saw this chart from Peter Walker.

Simply, the largest change in happiness happens after "Initial Enthusiasm" when it becomes "Reality sets in". 

It has by far the steepest slope (1st derivative for you math nerds). 

And that's where I'm at.

It's scary. 

And the only thing that gets me through? 

Unwavering faith in my work. 

Faking it til I'm making it. 

Experimenting. Pivoting. Grinding.

And now I get why founders have this insane ability to force visions and missions because that's what's required.

Not only do I want to believe I produce the best content on Marketing Strategy & Science in Consumer Tech, but I have to. 

I have to believe my sh*t is worth reading.

I have to believe it's worth buying.

I have to believe it's worth it.

Because then everyone else will too.

Love, 
Sundar

Dear post reader, 

Happy Thanksgiving from 0-3 weeks ago! 

I can not control when this surfaces, but I hope you have fully recovered from the binge eating, career sh*t talking, and your football team’s loss. 

I also hope that you were able to celebrate with everyone you were thankful for and that you recognize the good things going on in your life even if it’s surrounded by some other bad. 

Happy Thanksgiving! 🍽 🦃 🥘 🌽 

Sincerely,
Sundar

My next podcast guest is Mattia Santin, Senior VP of Marketing at Contentsquare (ex Hotjar, Uber)! 

On today's episode we chat about: 
• the career leaps that shaped his approach 
• what happens when CMOs get their hands dirty 
• why too many marketing teams mistake motion for progress 

and much more.

My favorite quotes from our conversation:

"The first thing I do is spend as much time as possible talking to people"

"You have to go down, into the trenches also in the numbers and understanding, making your own assessment of what, what you're seeing"

"Everybody was pushing me to spend more. It, it didn't feel right, in part because I never had that experience, in part because I didn't feel comfortable in our measurement and our ability to understand truly ROI."

Mattia is a brilliant strategist AND executor knowing how to drop in and build impactful Marketing teams. If you’re looking to get a leg up on how to navigate strategy, scale, or structure inside a fast-growing company, this one’s for you.

Tune in wherever you love listening to podcasts:
Listen: https://lnkd.in/gFGjqJ3e
Watch: https://lnkd.in/gueY5bYq
Subscribe: https://lnkd.in/gxR5c4Xd

‼️Launching accelerator: babY Combinator

Focused on seed and preseed stage for founders aged 7 and below. 

The new generation is born with AI from day 1 and understand the technology better than anyone.

In addition, when they build products for their peers, that demographic will have the highest LTV with an average of 75-80 years ahead of them. 

The math is undeniable. 

There of course will be some challenges:
- Additional facilities for diapers
- Cofounder tantrums 
- Naps 

But we believe we can over come them and create the next generation of truly generational founders. 

It is never too young to ride the AI wave. 

DM me if you want to be an LP. 

If you’re sold, skip the convo and Venmo me

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