University of Uncertainty

Founder

Bloomberg LP

FX & Commodities Derivatives Business Manager

FX Derivatives Business Manager

Financial Engineer Team Leader

UBS Investment Bank

Rates & FX Product Valuations

Morgan Stanley

FX Hybrids Trader

Barclays Capital

FX Long Dated Trader

Rates Quant Analyst

I'm Nuno, and at age 46, I've decided to terminate my *serious career*.

Why?

I love learning. I love working. I love creating *meaningful* value.

But the world got to a point where NONE of this is truly possible within the prevailing systems.

The root problem?

>>The dominant THINKING paradigm!


I found this sentiment is shared by many who have a sense of URGENCY that we must go BEYOND the *Data-driven*, *Bayesian-driven*, *Scientism-driven* and *Optimization-driven* understanding of the world.

That includes:

1/ AI SCIENTISTS who are seeking innovative ways of thinking to make sense of the world (...beyond the *Bayesian-driven* approach)

2/ MISFIT THINKERS who crave to explore the subjective, emergent dimensions of reality (...beyond the *Data-driven* paradigm)

3/ PORTFOLIO MANAGERS who are looking for unconventional ways to navigate market uncertainty (...beyond the *Optimization-driven* tactics)

4/ INSATIABLY CURIOUS QUANTS who want a deeper understanding of both risk and uncertainty (...beyond the *Scientism-driven* models)

5/ LEGACY-DRIVEN ENTREPRENEURS who want to build products addressing today's crises (...beyond the *Tech-driven* shiny objects)

6/ COACHES DISILLUSIONED WITH THEIR INDUSTRY who seek transformative frameworks of personal growth (...beyond the *Mechanistic-driven* goal setting)

>>Does ANY of these DEEPLY resonate with you?

Nuno Reis, PhD

You've been lied to. Here's what Peter Drucker REALLY said (and is the exact opposite):

"By the time it can be captured in numbers, it's too late"
—'The Effective Executive', page 17


So, how come the opposite FALSE narrative took over?...

Let’s unravel the LIES of modern Risk Management,
and how they are deceiving you!


//THE QUOTE
It started with V. F. Ridgway’s 1956 quote:

"What gets measured gets managed"

Yet, Ridgway was WARNING how metrics distort and damage organizations.

The FULL quote is:

"What gets measured gets managed—even when it's pointless to measure and manage it, and even if it harms the purpose of the organisation to do so"

Somewhere along the way, this warning got twisted into 'metric gospel'.

And Drucker?
Dragged into the mess...


//THE BIG LIE
The twisted quote started to be attributed to Drucker.

But he said something different:

Drucker argued that executives must use their 'perceptual thinking' (not logic) to capture OPPORTUNITIES over waiting for 'facts'.

Why?

Because once something becomes a 'fact', it's already too late.

If anything, he was advocating 'Rare Dots' — 
not (past) facts!


//MCKINSEYS GOLD RUSH
But then came the 1980s.

IT systems like SAP and Oracle made everything measurable.

McKinsey smelled opportunity and needed authority to sell it.

So they did the unthinkable: 

Turn Drucker’s wisdom into a slogan.

After all,
"You can't argue with Drucker, can you?"


//INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY
There was just one little problem:

Drucker's actual ideas were too nuanced,
too sophisticated, 
too... 'uncommercializable'.

McKinseys' solution?

Pure audacious genius:

>>Don't reject Drucker's wisdom — REENGINEER it! 

Take his insights → Remove nuance → Create simplified version (that justifies their services) → Turn into a power tool

Et voila!

"If you can't measure it, you can't manage it"

Short.
Punchy.
Authoritative.

Never mind that Drucker never said it.

Never mind it came from a WARNING about measurement dangers.

It's like quoting Orwell's 1984 to sell SURVEILLANCE manuals!

A deceptive, brilliant move...

---
Look around:

The real lie isn’t the quote.

>>It’s the system that's deceiving everyone into a Big Lie.

How many more lies can YOU see?

- Consultants see it
- Risk managers see it
- Economists see it too (well... maybe not all)

But few stop playing pretend.

They believe their lives will collapse if they do so.

IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THAT WAY

You don’t need to 'burn the boats'.

You just need to build a little Trojan Horse the system itself can’t play pretend.

>>That's what we do in our Rare Dots community.

Join us in one of our Friday calls to get a taste.

Register your interest here:

https://lnkd.in/e-ZQ_Y_E

PS: You don’t need permission to stop lying to yourself

💡Nuno Reis

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