University of Uncertainty

Founder

Bloomberg LP

FX & Commodities Derivatives Business Manager

FX Derivatives Business Manager

Financial Engineer Team Leader

UBS Investment Bank

Rates & FX Product Valuations

Morgan Stanley

FX Hybrids Trader

Barclays Capital

FX Long Dated Trader

Rates Quant Analyst

I'm Nuno, and at age 46, I've decided to terminate my *serious career*.

Why?

I love learning. I love working. I love creating *meaningful* value.

But the world got to a point where NONE of this is truly possible within the prevailing systems.

The root problem?

>>The dominant THINKING paradigm!


I found this sentiment is shared by many who have a sense of URGENCY that we must go BEYOND the *Data-driven*, *Bayesian-driven*, *Scientism-driven* and *Optimization-driven* understanding of the world.

That includes:

1/ AI SCIENTISTS who are seeking innovative ways of thinking to make sense of the world (...beyond the *Bayesian-driven* approach)

2/ MISFIT THINKERS who crave to explore the subjective, emergent dimensions of reality (...beyond the *Data-driven* paradigm)

3/ PORTFOLIO MANAGERS who are looking for unconventional ways to navigate market uncertainty (...beyond the *Optimization-driven* tactics)

4/ INSATIABLY CURIOUS QUANTS who want a deeper understanding of both risk and uncertainty (...beyond the *Scientism-driven* models)

5/ LEGACY-DRIVEN ENTREPRENEURS who want to build products addressing today's crises (...beyond the *Tech-driven* shiny objects)

6/ COACHES DISILLUSIONED WITH THEIR INDUSTRY who seek transformative frameworks of personal growth (...beyond the *Mechanistic-driven* goal setting)

>>Does ANY of these DEEPLY resonate with you?

Nuno Reis, PhD

You've been lied to. Here's what Peter Drucker REALLY said (and is the exact opposite):

"By the time it can be captured in numbers, it's too late"
—'The Effective Executive', page 17


So, how come the opposite FALSE narrative took over?...

Let’s unravel the LIES of modern Risk Management,
and how they are deceiving you!


//THE QUOTE
It started with V. F. Ridgway’s 1956 quote:

"What gets measured gets managed"

Yet, Ridgway was WARNING how metrics distort and damage organizations.

The FULL quote is:

"What gets measured gets managed—even when it's pointless to measure and manage it, and even if it harms the purpose of the organisation to do so"

Somewhere along the way, this warning got twisted into 'metric gospel'.

And Drucker?
Dragged into the mess...


//THE BIG LIE
The twisted quote started to be attributed to Drucker.

But he said something different:

Drucker argued that executives must use their 'perceptual thinking' (not logic) to capture OPPORTUNITIES over waiting for 'facts'.

Why?

Because once something becomes a 'fact', it's already too late.

If anything, he was advocating 'Rare Dots' — 
not (past) facts!


//MCKINSEYS GOLD RUSH
But then came the 1980s.

IT systems like SAP and Oracle made everything measurable.

McKinsey smelled opportunity and needed authority to sell it.

So they did the unthinkable: 

Turn Drucker’s wisdom into a slogan.

After all,
"You can't argue with Drucker, can you?"


//INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY
There was just one little problem:

Drucker's actual ideas were too nuanced,
too sophisticated, 
too... 'uncommercializable'.

McKinseys' solution?

Pure audacious genius:

>>Don't reject Drucker's wisdom — REENGINEER it! 

Take his insights → Remove nuance → Create simplified version (that justifies their services) → Turn into a power tool

Et voila!

"If you can't measure it, you can't manage it"

Short.
Punchy.
Authoritative.

Never mind that Drucker never said it.

Never mind it came from a WARNING about measurement dangers.

It's like quoting Orwell's 1984 to sell SURVEILLANCE manuals!

A deceptive, brilliant move...

---
Look around:

The real lie isn’t the quote.

>>It’s the system that's deceiving everyone into a Big Lie.

How many more lies can YOU see?

- Consultants see it
- Risk managers see it
- Economists see it too (well... maybe not all)

But few stop playing pretend.

They believe their lives will collapse if they do so.

IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THAT WAY

You don’t need to 'burn the boats'.

You just need to build a little Trojan Horse the system itself can’t play pretend.

>>That's what we do in our Rare Dots community.

Join us in one of our Friday calls to get a taste.

Register your interest here:

https://lnkd.in/e-ZQ_Y_E

PS: You don’t need permission to stop lying to yourself

💡Nuno Reis

Schonfeld

Senior Credit Quant

Quantitative Recipes

Various consulting and private projects in applied mathematical finance, risk advisory, training and automated quantitative investment.

Jan 2019- Nov 2018: Consultant at Deloitte, Financial  Risk Advisory.  Various mostly internal projects related to general derivatives pricing and risk,  XVA and FRTB. PySpark app design and development.

April 2018-Sep 2018:   PWC/Citi technical lead, Exotic Equity Derivatives.
As a senior member of the PWC consulting team, I was responsible for coordination and final “quality control” in the FO model/pricer documenting and testing project in Citi Equity Derivatives, covering the wide range of products from delta one vanillas to modern exotics and hybrids.

March 2018 - Produced a workshop on "Multivariate Dynamics of Financial Markets".
http://www.quantire.com/Home/Workshop

Also advised 

The Passion Project (http://www.passionproject.co.uk) and its affiliates, 
CryptoCompare (http://www.cryptocompare.com) 
TrustMe - TPX Exchange (http://tpx-london.io) 

on various financial matters.

Barclays Investment Bank

Runs the team providing structured credit QA.

Structured Credit QA Lead

LetterOne Treasury Services LLP

LTS is the liquidity management and securities trading operation of LetterOne, a $25bn private investment vehicle.

During the first year I have set up the risk and quant functions at LTS, including setting up market data feeds, setting up the quant pricing library, leading configuration of the production system and implementing the daily risk report production workflows (hedge reports, scenario analysis and management analytics). 

In the subsequent years, I was responsible for supporting pricing, risk and market data production infrastructure for all kinds of flow and exotic derivatives across all markets. I was also developing data driven systematic trading strategies, and analyzed ad-hoc portfolio construction and exotic derivatives trading ideas.

Head of Risk Management / Head of Modelling and Quantitative Analytics

Royal Bank of Scotland Group

Running both FO CVA and CCR IMM  quant teams, I lead design of the methodology and co-lead implementation of this methodology in the analytic modules of the greenfield Base III - complaint CCR risk system that won the 2013 Risk Award "Best In-House system of the year".

http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/feature/2317603/in-house-system-of-the-year-royal-bank-of-scotland

Designed the front office (“risk neutral”) XVA valuation solution as an extension and an integral part of the existing global quantitative analytics platform at RBS ("hub and spoke" rates/fx/inflation/credit model, HW/LMM/Cheyette + LSV for FX) , including market data platform, trade and position databases and the risk engine. 

In parallel, on internal secondment to the risk function, lead research, design and successful delivery of the market factor evolution methodology (purely econometric/historical measure) for the greenfield counterparty risk system to meet Basel III/CRD4 and earn IMM waiver. Factor types covered were interest rates, FX, inflation and credit (including rating migration), rates and FX volatility, all in a global dependency model  (5000-10,000 statistically estimated factors evolved in parametric Monte Carlo).

Co-managed the quant/risk developer team (10-15 people) that was implementing the newly designed methodology in the production risk system over a Hadoop cluster.

Managing Director, Head of CVA and CCR Quantitative Analytics

Goldman Sachs

Senior Strategist (Quant) at Goldman Sachs, Equity financing/Structured credit

Executive Director

HSBC

Director; initially responsible for European credit quant team, later promoted to the position of the Global head of credit quants, covering flow and structured credit, EM, as well as credit hybrids.

Director, Global Head of Credit QA

Dresdner Kleinwort

Senior Front Office Credit Derivatives Quant

VP, Credit Derivatives and Securitizations

Associate

CentreInvest Group

Running a mature team of around 10 sell side analysts (equity and fixed income).

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