Nick Maggiulli

You want the clearest giveaway that someone has no clue about investing?

They reference this chart.

It's called the Benner Cycle and it was invented by a farmer in Ohio in the 1870s to predict the future of the stock market. It goes viral from time to time because of its "predictive power."

The only problem? It rarely works.

According to the chart there should've been a panic in 1927, 1945, 1999, and 2019. Except, there wasn't. The 1927 "panic" was two years early (it happened in 1929). There wasn't a panic in 1945, only a minor recession post WWII (but the market ended up). There was no panic in 1999 (just the beginning of one in 2000). And the market was up in 2019 and 2020 (despite the COVID crash in 2020).

So why is this chart so popular? Because people use it to fit whatever theory they want while conveniently ignoring all the times where it got things wrong.

For example, in the middle of the chart it says that good times to sell stocks were in 1999 and 2007. Those are both spot on (right before the DotCom Bubble in 2000 and the Great Financial Crisis in 2008). 

However, it also says that other good times to sell stocks were in 1981 and 2016. But these were some of the best times to BUY stocks, not sell them! The bull markets that followed 1981 and 2016 were some of the greatest in U.S. stock market history. Unfortunately, people selectively ignore this information when touting the "predictive" abilities of this chart.

You can perform this exercise throughout the chart and you will find the same thing. Some years are right on and some are wildly off. This is exactly what we would expect from a random guess, not a predictive system.

This is why the Benner Cycle is no more than a financial horoscope. People see what they want to see in it.

So, if you want to bet your future on a coin flip from a random farmer in Ohio from the 1870s, good luck. But if you actually want to make money, I'd look elsewhere.

NY Times Bestselling Author | COO at Ritholtz

If I could give you one piece of career advice in 2026 it would be: 

Do something primarily because it's who you are, not because others are rewarding you for it.

My latest on intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation and the science behind what actually leads to long-term success.

Open article: The Leaf Leafs Anyway by ofdollarsanddata.com

In 2016, Jane Street knew the results of the Presidential election minutes before the media did.

Yet they still lost $300 million trading on it.

My latest on why knowing the future isn't as profitable as it seems:

Open article: Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future) by ofdollarsanddata.com

Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future)

Most of the recent increase in U.S. home equity is fake wealth. But it doesn't have to be.

My latest on the true value of home equity and how to unlock it:

Open article: Is Home Equity Fake Wealth? by ofdollarsanddata.com

Most people think the world is zero-sum. They see AI as competition. They see other creators as competition. 

But this view is wrong. 

Greatness never crowds out greatness. 

As James Clear once said, "There's always room for quality."

My latest:

https://lnkd.in/euwZeEHm

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I know this story is an outlier, but it highlights the mismatched risk/reward of being a landlord. Managing property looks great on paper, but the downside risks are massive.

A data-driven guide to personal finance and investing

Of Dollars And Data

Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth

Of Dollars And Data – Act Smarter. Live Richer.

What personal finance/investing topics do you want to see me write about in 2026?

Comment below.

Prior topics include:  

Coast FIRE
Is it better to buy or rent?
Should you invest in stocks at all-time highs?

Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors

Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. is an independent investment advisory firm in Houston and Tyler, Texas.  We specialize in investment management, retirement planning, and general financial planning.  We work with people in all phases of the investment life cycle; spanning from the younger, more aggressive investor, to the retiree drawing income from the portfolio.

Our financial advisors are Certified Financial Planner™ professionals, who have been helping clients achieve their goals for over 30 years.  We are honored to be our clients’ trusted advisor for all of their financial needs.

Senior Financial Advisor

The Legacy One Group

My role focused on comprehensive financial planning, covering an array of topics including: investment advising, retirement income planning, education funding, risk management, estate planning, and tax management.

Advisory Team Associate

Choice! Energy Services

Choice Energy Services specializes in energy management for commercial and industrial businesses in deregulated energy markets in Texas and the U.S.  

Choice provides ongoing energy solutions in a convoluted marketplace allowing clients to focus on their core business.  Services include: energy procurement consulting, bill audits, power factor consulting, demand response, bill payment & data reporting, and conservation consulting

Energy Consultant

PerioPal, LLP

Contributor to the development of startup dental software company and establishing a recognized brand in the dental industry.  PerioPal is a voice-driven periodontal charting software system for dental practices.  The company’s mission is to increase dental office productivity and improve the quality of care for dental patients

Sales Representative and Business Development

Residential Real Estate

I worked as a Realtor in conjunction with working for a software startup firm. My areas of focus were residential leasing, sales, and property management.

Realtor

Senior Financial Advisor | Financial planning and investment management for oil & gas professionals

Should you work with a financial advisor?

This is how I look at it...

Many people reach an inflection point as they progress through their career. Their financial life becomes more complicated, yet they have less time to deal with it. Their time and energy are focused on work, spending time with family, and other interests.

This can lead you to an uncomfortable position... knowing you need help but not sure where to get it.

As a financial advisor, I help in 2 main ways:

1) Investment management - it starts with a full review: 

-Analyze your current investing approach.
-Assess the tax-efficiency of your current savings.
-Provide ongoing management for your investments.
-Consolidate old accounts to simplify your financial life.
-Create a plan to balance current cash & future savings.

2) Financial planning - a deep dive to understand:

-How much are you saving?
-How and where are you saving?
-Who else relies on your financially? 
-What is your income and expenses?
-Have you done your estate planning?
-Do you have unmet insurance needs?
-When do you realistically want to retire?
-What would your ideal retirement look like?
-What concerns you most about your finances?

And so on…

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People I typically work with:

-High income earners 
-Mid-to-late career (or retired)
-Have growing financial complexities
-Seeking ongoing professional advice

I work with people across many industries, including:

-Consulting
-Technology
-Manufacturing
-Business owners
-Oil & gas / energy
-Medical professionals

And our firm is accepting new clients. 

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If any of this resonates with you, I invite you to book an appointment using the following link. Or you can send me a message here on LinkedIn.

https://calendly.com/willgoodson/discovery-meeting

I live in Tyler, TX and work with people all over Texas & the U.S.
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A little about me...

- I'm married with two kids.
- Born and raised in Texas.
- I'm an Eagle Scout.
- I love watching sports and coaching little league.
- Love learning about all types of businesses.

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Nick Maggiulli

Will Goodson, CFP®

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The Battle

Nick Maggiulli

Will Goodson, CFP®

Followers

Posts

Engagements

Likes

Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Nick Maggiulli's LinkedIn Performance

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