Nick Maggiulli

You want the clearest giveaway that someone has no clue about investing?

They reference this chart.

It's called the Benner Cycle and it was invented by a farmer in Ohio in the 1870s to predict the future of the stock market. It goes viral from time to time because of its "predictive power."

The only problem? It rarely works.

According to the chart there should've been a panic in 1927, 1945, 1999, and 2019. Except, there wasn't. The 1927 "panic" was two years early (it happened in 1929). There wasn't a panic in 1945, only a minor recession post WWII (but the market ended up). There was no panic in 1999 (just the beginning of one in 2000). And the market was up in 2019 and 2020 (despite the COVID crash in 2020).

So why is this chart so popular? Because people use it to fit whatever theory they want while conveniently ignoring all the times where it got things wrong.

For example, in the middle of the chart it says that good times to sell stocks were in 1999 and 2007. Those are both spot on (right before the DotCom Bubble in 2000 and the Great Financial Crisis in 2008). 

However, it also says that other good times to sell stocks were in 1981 and 2016. But these were some of the best times to BUY stocks, not sell them! The bull markets that followed 1981 and 2016 were some of the greatest in U.S. stock market history. Unfortunately, people selectively ignore this information when touting the "predictive" abilities of this chart.

You can perform this exercise throughout the chart and you will find the same thing. Some years are right on and some are wildly off. This is exactly what we would expect from a random guess, not a predictive system.

This is why the Benner Cycle is no more than a financial horoscope. People see what they want to see in it.

So, if you want to bet your future on a coin flip from a random farmer in Ohio from the 1870s, good luck. But if you actually want to make money, I'd look elsewhere.

NY Times Bestselling Author | COO at Ritholtz

If I could give you one piece of career advice in 2026 it would be: 

Do something primarily because it's who you are, not because others are rewarding you for it.

My latest on intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation and the science behind what actually leads to long-term success.

Open article: The Leaf Leafs Anyway by ofdollarsanddata.com

In 2016, Jane Street knew the results of the Presidential election minutes before the media did.

Yet they still lost $300 million trading on it.

My latest on why knowing the future isn't as profitable as it seems:

Open article: Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future) by ofdollarsanddata.com

Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future)

Most of the recent increase in U.S. home equity is fake wealth. But it doesn't have to be.

My latest on the true value of home equity and how to unlock it:

Open article: Is Home Equity Fake Wealth? by ofdollarsanddata.com

Most people think the world is zero-sum. They see AI as competition. They see other creators as competition. 

But this view is wrong. 

Greatness never crowds out greatness. 

As James Clear once said, "There's always room for quality."

My latest:

https://lnkd.in/euwZeEHm

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I know this story is an outlier, but it highlights the mismatched risk/reward of being a landlord. Managing property looks great on paper, but the downside risks are massive.

A data-driven guide to personal finance and investing

Of Dollars And Data

Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth

Of Dollars And Data – Act Smarter. Live Richer.

What personal finance/investing topics do you want to see me write about in 2026?

Comment below.

Prior topics include:  

Coast FIRE
Is it better to buy or rent?
Should you invest in stocks at all-time highs?

Copley Investment Management

As an advisor with Copley Investment Management, I help individuals and corporations with their investment and retirement planning needs.  This includes discussing your specific risk tolerance (conservative, moderate, aggressive) and income objectives (growth, income, preservation).    

CIM was founded in 1985 by Ron Copley, PhD, CFA.  Most of our clients have been with us for decades and we strive to build the same relationships with others.  As a representative of an independent RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) firm, I am held to a fiduciary standard.  This simply means I do not sell investment products to gain from their commissions.  Our flat-fee business model is designed not to sell, but to service our clients based on their needs, not our own.

CIM primarily serves individuals, families, and employer sponsored retirement plans with expert investment guidance that is truly independent (no commissions) and transparent (no hidden fees). We adhere to a disciplined investment strategy and a commitment to serving the long-term interests of the serious investor. 

For more information, please visit www.copleyinvestmentmanagement.com

Investment Advisor Representative

Relationship Banker with First Bank

At First Bank, I worked as a credit analyst, customer service representative, and teller.  This included financial statement analysis, loan underwriting and documentation preparation, new accounts and transactions, and help with online account access.  

First Bank taught me the importance of great customer service by listening to customers needs.

Relationship Banker

Investment Advisor Representative | Retirement Plan Advisor

I provide investment management and retirement planning services that are tailored to my client's specific needs. 

At Copley Investment Management, we strive to be our client's trusted advisor. As a registered investment advisory firm (RIA), CIM is held to a fiduciary standard.  This simply means we do not sell investment products nor receive commissions for our own gain.  We provide unbiased investment advise that is designed according to each client's risk tolerance and long-term objectives.  We do not believe in a one-size-fits-all approach to investing.

CIM advises with the highest level of trust, integrity, transparency, and respect while collaborating with other professionals (CPA's, insurance agents, estate attorneys, etc.) as needed.

To set up an appointment to discuss your investment and retirement planning needs, contact me at (910) 612-4060 or by email at jburgesscim@gmail.com

For more information about RIA firms in general, check out www.FindYourIndependentAdvisor.com

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Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Nick Maggiulli's LinkedIn Performance

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