Nick Maggiulli

You want the clearest giveaway that someone has no clue about investing?

They reference this chart.

It's called the Benner Cycle and it was invented by a farmer in Ohio in the 1870s to predict the future of the stock market. It goes viral from time to time because of its "predictive power."

The only problem? It rarely works.

According to the chart there should've been a panic in 1927, 1945, 1999, and 2019. Except, there wasn't. The 1927 "panic" was two years early (it happened in 1929). There wasn't a panic in 1945, only a minor recession post WWII (but the market ended up). There was no panic in 1999 (just the beginning of one in 2000). And the market was up in 2019 and 2020 (despite the COVID crash in 2020).

So why is this chart so popular? Because people use it to fit whatever theory they want while conveniently ignoring all the times where it got things wrong.

For example, in the middle of the chart it says that good times to sell stocks were in 1999 and 2007. Those are both spot on (right before the DotCom Bubble in 2000 and the Great Financial Crisis in 2008). 

However, it also says that other good times to sell stocks were in 1981 and 2016. But these were some of the best times to BUY stocks, not sell them! The bull markets that followed 1981 and 2016 were some of the greatest in U.S. stock market history. Unfortunately, people selectively ignore this information when touting the "predictive" abilities of this chart.

You can perform this exercise throughout the chart and you will find the same thing. Some years are right on and some are wildly off. This is exactly what we would expect from a random guess, not a predictive system.

This is why the Benner Cycle is no more than a financial horoscope. People see what they want to see in it.

So, if you want to bet your future on a coin flip from a random farmer in Ohio from the 1870s, good luck. But if you actually want to make money, I'd look elsewhere.

NY Times Bestselling Author | COO at Ritholtz

If I could give you one piece of career advice in 2026 it would be: 

Do something primarily because it's who you are, not because others are rewarding you for it.

My latest on intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation and the science behind what actually leads to long-term success.

Open article: The Leaf Leafs Anyway by ofdollarsanddata.com

In 2016, Jane Street knew the results of the Presidential election minutes before the media did.

Yet they still lost $300 million trading on it.

My latest on why knowing the future isn't as profitable as it seems:

Open article: Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future) by ofdollarsanddata.com

Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future)

Most of the recent increase in U.S. home equity is fake wealth. But it doesn't have to be.

My latest on the true value of home equity and how to unlock it:

Open article: Is Home Equity Fake Wealth? by ofdollarsanddata.com

Most people think the world is zero-sum. They see AI as competition. They see other creators as competition. 

But this view is wrong. 

Greatness never crowds out greatness. 

As James Clear once said, "There's always room for quality."

My latest:

https://lnkd.in/euwZeEHm

undefined undefined

I know this story is an outlier, but it highlights the mismatched risk/reward of being a landlord. Managing property looks great on paper, but the downside risks are massive.

A data-driven guide to personal finance and investing

Of Dollars And Data

Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth

Of Dollars And Data – Act Smarter. Live Richer.

What personal finance/investing topics do you want to see me write about in 2026?

Comment below.

Prior topics include:  

Coast FIRE
Is it better to buy or rent?
Should you invest in stocks at all-time highs?

Sunpointe Investments

Vice President of Financial Planning and Private Wealth Advisor

Vanguard

Internal Sales Manager

Senior Internal Sales Consultant

Manage a book of business with my external partner of Financial Professionals within the Broker Dealer industry. Our goal is to develop relationships with advisors and support their practices through our world class products, literature and research, and, tools and analysis. This role requires some travel into the field and managing many projects and relationships at one time. We use various sale techniques to open the conversation with our advisors to match a product or solution with a specific topic area.

Internal Sales Consultant

Handles in-bound calls from financial advisor related to general market knowledge, Vanguard product information, and competitor products.
Profiles prospective clients, recommends suitable Vanguard investments and passes sales leads to responsible FAS sales team when appropriate.
Builds, grows, and maintains advisor relationships with external partner by developing a thorough understanding of Vanguards value added offerings and successfully positioning these services to advisors.
Assists Internal and External sales executives by delivering analytics, talking points, and competitive analysis for projects.

Inbound Sales Associate in Financial Advisor Services

Help clients find a solution to various problems with their investment portfolios or investment strategies through working with an advisor or guidance. We also look at other areas to save clients on expense ratios and fees by moving assets under one roof to make it easier to invest. Overall our goal is to develop a deeper relationship with clients and build trust.

Select Services

Assisting all types of investors with meeting their financial goals-the young adult opening a first account, a family saving for a child's college education, a married couple investing for their first home, a high net worth client preserving her wealth, or an entrepreneur managing his small-business retirement plan. As well as, developing relationships with clients to understand their unique investment needs and position appropriate products or solutions

Client Relationship Associate

Philadelphia Phillies

- Helped clients purchase tickets
- Assisted The Big Piece Foundation (Ryan Howards Foundation) with a live auction and set up and take down of the facility.
- Ball park tours
- Pre-game set up for parties and events.
-Event management assistance for the "Run or Dye" event at the stadium

Phone Center Intern

I am a father and a husband, which are the two proudest titles I hold.

I made the leap from wholesaling for an industry giant to become a financial planner.

This has been my dream for over 5-years, but I wanted to make sure I achieved the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER designation and found a firm that shared my vision for planning. Sunpointe Investments was the perfect match.

The number one question I get when friends and family learned about my job change was, "did you get a big pay bump?" The answer is, "no." 

Here is what I get to do: I build meaningful relationships that are not transactional. I get to learn about "clients" (who become friends) families and friends. I get to be apart of the incredibly difficult decisions that families have to make while protecting them from the unexpected aspects of life we know can happen. I get to take the stress off of clients plates by thinking ahead, doing analysis behind the scenes, probing to learn more about concerns, and providing education every step of the way.

On a personal side, I get to pick my two kids up from school and take them to sports, dance, and other activities. Since the job change, I haven't missed an event with my kids.

I get to be famous in my house which is the most important thing to me.

Outside of family, I still play in a lacrosse league and am an avid power lifter. I try to keep my body in great shape, while still enjoying what life has to offer.

I am, as my wife would describe, a nerd. I love talking about taxes, finding the right insurance coverage for families, designing budgets that fit clients needs, and making sure your legacy is set up via estate planning. Late nights crunching numbers is not a drag for me, but is something I find joy in.

I am not the expert on everything but I read a fair amount, and try to stay in learning mode.

That is who I am as a person and I am incredibly grateful for the constant support I receive. 


Sunpointe, LLC (Sunpointe Investments) is a registered investment advisor. Sunpointe provides investment advisory and related services for clients nationally. Sunpointe Investments  will maintain all applicable registration and licenses as required by the various states in which it conducts business. For additional information, please visit our website at SunpointeInvestments.com.

Ben Tuscai, CFP®

Tomorrow I will share my 2026 goals, but let's recap 2025.

𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬

 • Only missed 1 kid activity. Being present is extremely important to me.

 • Spent more than a week at the beach. Our family loves the beach and making this happen was big.

 • Bought my first new car

 • My wife and kids are still happy to see me most days.



𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬

 • Added 17 new households to our business

 • Volunteered 20 hours doing pro bono financial planning for two families

 • Helped 40 families here at Sunpointe Investments with financial planning needs (clients outside of my business)

 • Refined our marketing strategy with our partner Intention.ly

What a year!

Thank you to our incredible team here at Sunpointe, our clients, my friends who have cheered me along, my family for their support, and mainly to my wife who has endured a lot over the past 12 months.

To have the year I had it takes a village.

And I appreciate that village.

Cheers to 2026!

Relieving stress for families making life decisions👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 | Planning nerd for those with variable income and expanding responsibilities as wholesaler's | Husband, Dad, and All Things Sports🏋‍♂️

taplio

The Battle

Nick Maggiulli

Ben Tuscai, CFP®

Followers

Posts

Engagements

Likes

Performance ScoreNick Maggiulli's LinkedIn Performance

Performance ScoreBen Tuscai, CFP®'s LinkedIn Performance

Ready to grow your LinkedIn presence?

taplio

The Battle

Nick Maggiulli

Ben Tuscai, CFP®

Followers

Posts

Engagements

Likes

Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Nick Maggiulli's LinkedIn Performance

Performance ScoreBen Tuscai, CFP®'s LinkedIn Performance

Ready to grow your LinkedIn presence?

Performance ScoreNick Maggiulli's LinkedIn Performance