Nick Maggiulli

You want the clearest giveaway that someone has no clue about investing?

They reference this chart.

It's called the Benner Cycle and it was invented by a farmer in Ohio in the 1870s to predict the future of the stock market. It goes viral from time to time because of its "predictive power."

The only problem? It rarely works.

According to the chart there should've been a panic in 1927, 1945, 1999, and 2019. Except, there wasn't. The 1927 "panic" was two years early (it happened in 1929). There wasn't a panic in 1945, only a minor recession post WWII (but the market ended up). There was no panic in 1999 (just the beginning of one in 2000). And the market was up in 2019 and 2020 (despite the COVID crash in 2020).

So why is this chart so popular? Because people use it to fit whatever theory they want while conveniently ignoring all the times where it got things wrong.

For example, in the middle of the chart it says that good times to sell stocks were in 1999 and 2007. Those are both spot on (right before the DotCom Bubble in 2000 and the Great Financial Crisis in 2008). 

However, it also says that other good times to sell stocks were in 1981 and 2016. But these were some of the best times to BUY stocks, not sell them! The bull markets that followed 1981 and 2016 were some of the greatest in U.S. stock market history. Unfortunately, people selectively ignore this information when touting the "predictive" abilities of this chart.

You can perform this exercise throughout the chart and you will find the same thing. Some years are right on and some are wildly off. This is exactly what we would expect from a random guess, not a predictive system.

This is why the Benner Cycle is no more than a financial horoscope. People see what they want to see in it.

So, if you want to bet your future on a coin flip from a random farmer in Ohio from the 1870s, good luck. But if you actually want to make money, I'd look elsewhere.

NY Times Bestselling Author | COO at Ritholtz

If I could give you one piece of career advice in 2026 it would be: 

Do something primarily because it's who you are, not because others are rewarding you for it.

My latest on intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation and the science behind what actually leads to long-term success.

Open article: The Leaf Leafs Anyway by ofdollarsanddata.com

In 2016, Jane Street knew the results of the Presidential election minutes before the media did.

Yet they still lost $300 million trading on it.

My latest on why knowing the future isn't as profitable as it seems:

Open article: Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future) by ofdollarsanddata.com

Why You Can't Time the Market (Even When You Know the Future)

Most of the recent increase in U.S. home equity is fake wealth. But it doesn't have to be.

My latest on the true value of home equity and how to unlock it:

Open article: Is Home Equity Fake Wealth? by ofdollarsanddata.com

Most people think the world is zero-sum. They see AI as competition. They see other creators as competition. 

But this view is wrong. 

Greatness never crowds out greatness. 

As James Clear once said, "There's always room for quality."

My latest:

https://lnkd.in/euwZeEHm

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I know this story is an outlier, but it highlights the mismatched risk/reward of being a landlord. Managing property looks great on paper, but the downside risks are massive.

A data-driven guide to personal finance and investing

Of Dollars And Data

Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth

Of Dollars And Data – Act Smarter. Live Richer.

What personal finance/investing topics do you want to see me write about in 2026?

Comment below.

Prior topics include:  

Coast FIRE
Is it better to buy or rent?
Should you invest in stocks at all-time highs?

Senior Consultant - Financial Crimes Compliance

United States Marine Corps

Served as a Supervisor and AML Investigator for the Department of Defense (DoD), providing AML intelligence analysis, reporting, and strategic knowledge sharing.
•	Oversaw a team of 10 personnel across various locations, coordinating training, administrative resolutions, and performance assessments.

Supervisor and Analyst, Reserves 

Led a team of 10 investigators, executing in-depth AML analyses and critical investigations, directly contributing to impactful actions including sanctions and seizures by Federal Law Enforcement and Treasury OFAC.
•	Produced detailed reports on sophisticated money laundering, terrorist financing, and sanctions evasion cases, employing knowledge of trade-based laundering, currency exchanges, and cryptocurrencies.
•	Conducted meticulous reviews of junior investigators' work, ensuring the highest standards of quality, accuracy, and regulatory compliance.

Supervisor and Intelligence Analyst, Active Duty 

USAA

Conducted hundreds of complex Anti-Money Laundering (AML) investigations primarily centered on Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) and high-risk accounts transacting with digital assets
• Analyzed millions of cryptocurrency transactions, developed AML cases to mitigate risks, and effectively communicated strategic insights to Bank leadership, contributing to the refinement of transaction monitoring systems and identification of new compliance scenarios
• Instrumental in creating a comprehensive high-risk VASP database, optimizing the efficiency and effectiveness of cryptocurrency investigation processes

Anti-Money Laundering Investigator I

Raymond James

Advanced professional skills and technical knowledge in capital markets through a rigorous apprenticeship within the Veteran’s Integration Program.
•	Diligently onboarded new clients, ensuring full compliance with BSA/AML laws, adhering to OFAC sanctions screenings, and upholding KYC principles.

Financial Advisor

Goldman Sachs

Gained professional development and upskilled technical knowledge, with a focus on capital markets, through intensive apprenticeship.
•	Completed comprehensive onboarding programs in Consumer and Investment Management, Global Markets, and Merchant Banking, gaining a broad understanding of financial services sectors.

Veterans Integration Program Member

National Security Agency

Awarded Department of Defense Joint Service Commendation Medal for outstanding leadership and service excellence; Led a division of 70+ personnel, steering the publication of over 500 intelligence reports vital to countering terrorist financing and achieving AML goals.
•	Successfully maintained critical AML operations with a streamlined workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating exceptional adaptability and crisis management skills.
•	Fostered enhanced collaboration by acting as the primary liaison with internal and external stakeholders, significantly boosting operational success.
•	Drove increased productivity and efficiency by reorganizing the division into specialized teams tailored to operational demands.

Manager

Supervised and mentored a team of 10 analysts in executing counter-terrorist financing, AML, and intelligence analysis and investigations; answered over 50 customer needs with reports leading to sanctions, designations, arrests, and asset seizures.
•	Supplied quality reports detailing complex cases of money laundering, terrorist financing, corruption, and sanctions evasion through trade-based money laundering, currency exchanges, cryptocurrency, and other schemes.
•	Reviewed the work of junior team members to ensure quality, accuracy, and compliance.

Team Leader and Analyst

“All of life is the management of risk, not its elimination.” — Walter Wriston, former Citicorp CEO.

Financial Crimes Compliance, like life, is about managing risk. Financial crimes such as money laundering, fraud, and corruption are the lifeblood of some of the world’s most insidious activities, including drug trafficking, human smuggling, and kleptocracy. The common thread? It’s always about the money. Financial Crimes Compliance efforts aim to reduce the risk that your institution becomes a conduit for these illicit gains. By practicing sound compliance strategies, businesses not only adhere to regulations but also safeguard their reputations. Throughout my career, I have applied rigorous risk management practices across banks, intelligence agencies, and law enforcement, ensuring compliance and combating crime by implementing comprehensive strategies to detect, prevent, and mitigate financial crimes across various sectors.

My experience spans beyond just FinCrime. I have mitigated risks across various sectors, including tactical risk in the military, organizational and operational risk in government, financial and portfolio risk for wealth management clients, and regulatory risk for financial institutions.

Managing risk requires staying vigilant about emerging trends and continuously expanding one’s skill set. I am committed to lifelong learning. While on active duty, I earned associate degrees in Spanish and business management, as well as a bachelor’s in criminal justice. I am also on track to complete my MBA in May 2025. Additionally, I hold the Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist certification and regularly participate in industry events focused on the latest trends in financial crimes, fraud, and compliance.

I enjoy connecting with fellow learners and risk managers, and I am always open to new opportunities, so please reach out!

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Nick Maggiulli

Alexander Carr, MBA, CAMS

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The Battle

Nick Maggiulli

Alexander Carr, MBA, CAMS

Followers

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Engagements

Likes

Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Nick Maggiulli's LinkedIn Performance

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