Jonathon Blair

DTC Brand Fractional CFO | Follower of Jesus | Husband | Father of 3 | Fractional CFO | Leadership, Strategy & Productivity Nerd

www.FreeToGrowCFO.com

👇 GET ACCESS TO OUR FREE CASH FLOW 101 COURSE
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https://freetogrowcfo.com/free-cfo-analysis

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🧔‍♂️ WHO IS FREE TO GROW CFO 
Outsourced CFO and Bookkeeping services for profit-focused DTC brands.   

Scaling a DTC brand is stressful. 

With messy books and no CFO on your team you run the risk of…  
-Hiring too quickly  
-Buying too much inventory 
-Scaling ad spend unprofitably 
-Running out of cash  

And that leads to stressful, sleepless nights. We don’t want that for you.  

Free to Grow CFO has given hundreds of DTC brands a plan for scaling alongside healthy profit and cash flow. Our plan will work for you too.

Fast, Insightful Reporting.  Proactive Strategic Advice.  From DTC Finance Experts.  
-M&A -Debt & Equity Funding 
-Accurate Financials by the 15th 
-Planning, Forecasting, Budgeting 
-Financial Dashboards and KPI Tracking   

All delivered through our proven, ready-to-implement “Free to Grow CFO Process”.

📈 WANT TO INCREASE PROFIT AND CASH FLOW AS YOU SCALE?
Book a Call Now → https://freetogrowcfo.com/book-a-call

🤝 CONNECT WITH JON BLAIR ON LINKEDIN
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/

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Founder | Fractional CFO

www.freetogrowcfo.com

Fractional CFOs for High Growth Direct-to-Consumer Brands

Outsourced, part-time CFO services for high growth D2C brands, designed to help you scale your business with confidence.

You don't have to suffer through another sleepless night worrying about making difficult business decisions alone.  Hire a Free to Grow CFO and get the financial insights you need to make fast, effective business decisions with confidence.

Get access to the CFO you need to scale your business without the full-time salary:
-Strategic Planning
-Forecasting & Projections
-Cash Strategy & Fundraising
-Financial Statement Analysis

Jon Blair

Your books don’t fail quietly—they fail when you need them most.
 
A lender says no.  
Cash gets tight out of nowhere.  
Margins suddenly “don’t make sense.”

The problem usually isn’t revenue.  
It’s a handful of balance sheet blind spots no one taught them to watch for.

Here are the places we see books break most often in growing DTC brands:
• Cash that doesn’t actually tie  
• Inventory that’s missing, frozen, or wildly wrong  
• Merchant clearing accounts that don’t exist  
• AP at zero, so working capital is unknowable 
  
If you’ve ever said, “The P&L looks fine, but I still feel uneasy,” this is why.
 
None of this shows up clearly on a surface-level P&L.  
All of it lives on the balance sheet.

In this week’s episode of the Free to Grow CFO Podcast, AJ Stockwell, founder of Climb CFO, and I walk through exactly where books break as brands scale—and how to fix the right things without overpaying for cleanup.

If you’re growing and your numbers don’t fully make sense, this episode will help you figure out why.

🎧 Episode is live.

Building a profitable, cash-rich brand at scale doesn’t happen by accident.

It happens through intentional planning and improvement over a long period of time.

One of the many reasons why fast growing, cash flowing brands all have a badass CFO.

Do you have one?

No alternative text description for this image

Why "hope for an exit" is not a strategy" 👇
  
Building a brand solely to exit is speculation.  

Building a brand that throws off cash, compounds profit, and strengthens over time is strategic investing.
  
Ironically, the second approach is far more attractive to buyers—but that’s not the point.
  
The point is control.
  
Control over your cash.  
Control over your risk.  
Control over your timeline.  
Control over your personal wealth creation.
Control over your destiny.

Want more control?

Hiring an expert DTC CFO may be just the thing you need to take back control of your destiny.

Why so many DTC brands struggled in 2025  👇
  
Many brands didn’t fail because they were bad operators.  

They failed because they optimized for the wrong scoreboard.
  
When capital was cheap during the COVID-era brands could:  
• Lose money on new customer acquisition    
• Over-invest in inventory    
• Ignore cash flow timing    
• Assume future scale would fix today’s losses  
  
That only works when someone else is willing to subsidize your mistakes.
  
Today, no one is.
  
Rising CACs, tighter capital, slower consumer demand, and more rational buyers mean that profitability is no longer optional—it’s the price of admission.
  
And not just “profitable someday.”
  
Profitable at the order level.  

Profitable at the contribution margin level.  

Profitable in cash, not just on paper.

--
  
Hi, I'm Jon Blair founder of the DTC Finance and Accounting firm Free to Grow CFO.
  
Want more tips on scaling a profitable DTC brand? 
  
Give me a follow.
  
Want to learn more about how Free to Grow's Accountants and CFO's can help you increase profit and cash flow as you scale?
  
Shoot me a DM.
  
Until next time, scale on!

The most important conversations about scaling in 2026 won’t happen on LinkedIn.

They’ll happen in smaller rooms—where founders can talk honestly about what’s working, what’s bending, and what they’re rethinking before the year really gets going.
 
That’s why Free to Grow CFO is teaming up with Vintti to host a small, in-person founder dinner in Austin to kick off 2026.
 
This isn’t a networking event.  
No panels.  No pitch decks.  No “networking event” energy.
 
Just a table of founders having real conversations about:
• How growth is actually being financed right now
• Where money quietly gets burned (especially ads and headcount)
• How teams are being built—or rebuilt—for 2026
• And which decisions founders are actively rethinking heading into the year

I’ll be sharing what we’re seeing across scaling DTC brands on the finance side.

We’ll also be joined by:
 
• Dean Brennan (Heart & Soil) on using brand as a real growth lever—not just a marketing expense
• Agustín Morrone (Vintti) on how founders are approaching hiring A-players in 2026 without becoming the bottleneck
 
We’re keeping the table intentionally small so the conversation stays high-signal and useful for everyone in the room.

If you’re a DTC founder in and around the Austin area and this sounds like a room you’d want to be part of, you can 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗮 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: 
👉 https://lnkd.in/eGnmE3Nf
 
If you can’t make it or Austin isn't the cards this time, be sure to join my weekly newsletter and I’ll share the key themes and insights that come out of the dinner.

Sign up for my newsletter here --> https://lnkd.in/eWt3KhpR

CEO, SplitBase. Conversion Optimization & Landing Pages for DTC Brands.

Most website changes hurt conversions.The problem? You'll never know which ones.That redesign your team loved? Could be costing you sales.That "best practice" you copied from a competitor? Might be killing your ROAS.(You'll never see it in your data. It just looks like a slow decline.)I've spent 10 years proving this at SplitBase. We've run 10,000+ A/B tests for brands like Dr. Squatch, Once Upon a Farm, Manduka, Kiehl's, and Hyperice. We've generated over $100M+ per year in incremental revenue for our clients.And here's what all that testing taught me:→ What works for one brand almost never works for another→ “Best practices” fail more often than they win→ Internal opinions don’t scale→ Random changes hurt more than they helpThat's why we don't just test random ideas. We start with research:Where the funnel is leaking, why shoppers hesitate, and which constraints actually limit growth.Then - and only then - we build tests designed to move revenue, not just metrics.We work with DTC brands doing $10M to $100M+. Brands that are scaling hard but watching their efficiency drop. Brands that know something's broken but can't pinpoint what.If that sounds like you, here are 3 ways I can help:1. DM me your biggest conversion questions2. Take our free 3-minute CRO Assessment (see below)3. Get a free, 1-1 CRO audit to pinpoint your 3 biggest CRO opportunities (see below)

Raphael Paulin-Daigle

You're A/B testing. Your competitor is research testing.

Guess who wins.

Random A/B testing: 

- Test headlines.
- Test button colors. 
- Test layouts. 
- Pick ideas from best practices. 
- Hope something works.

Research testing: 

- Session replays show where customers hesitate. 
- Customer interviews reveal why they don't buy. 
- Research identifies friction. 
- Tests validate solutions.

The difference: You're testing what might work. They're testing what research shows works.

The time gap: You spend 6 months testing random ideas. They spend 2 weeks on research, then test validated solutions.

What random testing misses: 

WHY customers hesitate. 
WHAT perception gaps exist. 
WHERE trust signals are missing.

Analytics shows what happens. Research shows why.

While you guess, they execute. 
You test random variations. They test researched solutions. 
You waste capacity. They focus on what matters.

Result: They win more tests. Move faster. Learn more.

Carousel below 👇

Follow for research-driven CRO insights.

CRO & Conversion Design for DTC brands: Transparent Labs, Oakcha, Amika, Dr Squatch, Laura Geller & more. 12+ years in ecommerce optimization. Follow for daily A/B testing & conversion optimization insights.

You're A/B Testing. Your Competitor Is Research Testing.

We ran strategic CRO programs for DTC brands in 2025.

Here's what won, and what it means for 2026.

1️⃣ Bundle strategy drives revenue

Grinds Coffee added bundle builder and quantity discounts.
Result: Revenue growth from multi-product purchases.

2026 takeaway: Make it easy to buy more. Design bundle experiences.

2️⃣ Trust signals move the needle

Ancestral Supplements amplified credibility throughout their landing page.
Result: 16% landing page conversion increase, 39% subscription increase.

2026 takeaway: Trust determines conversion. Strengthen proof at decision points.

3️⃣ Clarity beats clever

Both brands focused on clarity. Grinds improved product differentiation. Ancestral fixed content hierarchy.

2026 takeaway: Confusion kills conversion. Make benefits obvious.

4️⃣ Research identifies what to test

Both brands used analytics, heatmaps, customer interviews, and surveys before testing.

2026 takeaway: Random testing wastes time. Research shows what's blocking conversions.

What 2025 winners teach us: 

Buyers want convenient ways to buy more. 
Buyers need trust to convert. 
Buyers leave when confused. 
Research reveals what's broken.

Stop guessing. Start researching.

Carousel below 👇

Follow for research-driven CRO insights backed by real results.

Winning Tests From 2025 Tell Us About 2026 Buyer Behavior

The difference between average and elite CRO?

Elite CRO doesn't test guesses.

Average CRO builds hypotheses like this: 
"Let's test a new headline." 
"Maybe a green button will work." 
"This worked for another brand."

Random ideas. No research. Hoping something works.

Elite CRO builds hypotheses like this: 
"Session replays show customers hesitate at checkout because shipping isn't clear. If we show shipping costs on the product page, abandonment will decrease."

Research-backed. Testing solutions to known problems.

Here's the framework that separates them:

Step 1: Research

Session replays, customer interviews, behavioral data, support tickets. 
Research identifies what's actually broken.

Step 2: Identify Friction

Where do customers hesitate? 
What perception gaps exist? 
Which trust signals are missing? 
Research shows specific friction points.

Step 3: Form Hypothesis

Hypothesis = Research insight + Proposed solution + Expected outcome + Reason backed by data.

Step 4: Test Solution

Run to statistical significance. Measure primary metrics. Validate or invalidate hypothesis.

Step 5: Document Learning

Win or lose, document why. What did research reveal? What did the test prove? Learnings compound.

Average CRO tests random ideas. Elite CRO tests research-backed solutions.

Research identifies what to test. 
Strategic thinking prioritizes solutions. 
Testing validates what works.

Carousel below 👇

Follow for research-driven CRO insights.

The Difference Between Average & Elite CRO?

One 2026 CRO trend won't fix your conversions.

Your actual problems, customer behavior, and conversion barriers should decide your approach, not industry predictions.

After analyzing the latest 2026 predictions, three stand out as fundamentally wrong:

1️⃣ "Personalization pressure has never been greater"

The prediction: Personalize everything to meet customer expectations.

The problem: Personalization tools can't identify why customers don't convert. 
They can't spot perception gaps, run customer interviews, or identify blocking points.

Research first. Then personalize.

2️⃣ "Popups are the future of CRO"

The prediction: Popups solve modern conversion challenges through data collection and personalization.

The problem: This is tactical thinking. Tools don't solve problems you haven't diagnosed. Unclear value propositions, missing trust signals, and buying friction require strategy, not popups.

Diagnose first. Then pick tools.

3️⃣ "Speed + personalization = success"

The prediction: Fast websites with personalized overlays solve everything.

The problem: Speed doesn't fix broken fundamentals. Fast experiences still fail if value communication is unclear or trust signals are missing.

Fix fundamentals first. Then optimize speed.

Follow predictions blindly and you'll waste months on the wrong priorities.

Start with research and you'll fix what actually blocks conversions.

Want to know what's actually blocking your conversions? 

Get a free assessment here 👉 https://lnkd.in/ePv4rSyV

Testing your product page without research?

That's how you run experiments... and waste months.

BestSelf had the product and loyal customers. But their Self Journal page had a high bounce rate.

Here's how research-first CRO fixed it 👇

First step?

The Research Process:
→ User testing, heatmaps, and session analysis
→ Surveys + polls to understand visitor confusion
→ Qualitative research to identify buyer patterns

What we uncovered:
→ Visitors didn't understand the product's benefits
→ They weren't scrolling past the fold → no engagement
→ Trust was missing → skepticism about whether it would work

So we rebuilt the messaging from the ground up:
✅ Identified that most buyers were "professionals"
✅ Rewrote headline to target that identity
✅ Added core benefit: "achieve their goals"
✅ Included social proof with user count

One headline test. Strategic, research-backed change.

The result?

✅ 27% increase in Self Journal sales
✅ 74% conversion rate increase on desktop
✅ Site-wide sales impact
✅ Clear messaging that hooks visitors immediately

A product page test is about understanding why customers don't convert.

♻️ Share if this helped, and follow for more research-driven CRO.

Case Study - BestSelf Co.

Before you hire a CRO agency in 2026, ask these questions.

The landscape has changed. Here's what separates real expertise from expensive guesswork.

Red flags: 

🚩 Promising specific % lifts before doing research. If they guarantee results before analyzing your site, talking to your customers, or reviewing your data, they're guessing.

🚩 No mention of statistical significance. Proper test duration, sample size, and what happens when you stop tests early should be part of the conversation. If it's not, they don't understand testing integrity.

🚩 AI or tools as the main pitch. "Our proprietary AI system" is a red flag. 
AI should support research-driven methodology, not replace it.

🚩 Generic recommendations without research. "Add testimonials" or "try a pop-up" before reviewing session replays, interviews, or behavioral data means they're working from templates, not insights.

Questions that reveal expertise:

"How do you determine what to test?" 

Right answer: research, session replays, customer interviews, analytics. 
Wrong answer: best practices or what worked for another client.

"What happens when tests lose?" 

Right answer: we document learnings. 
Wrong answer: we keep testing until we find a winner.

"How do you handle statistical significance?" 

Right answer: specific methodology, sample size requirements, test duration. 
Wrong answer: we look at the data and decide.

What good looks like:

→ Research-first methodology. 
→ Case studies with real numbers. 
→ Clear testing framework. 
→ Transparent about statistical requirements. 
→ Honest about what they don't know.

The right agency demonstrates their process upfront. They explain their methodology. They show you past results with real numbers.

Hire an agency can prove their expertise.

Book your free diagnostic right here 👉https://lnkd.in/e4vNtcvq

Your conversion rate goal is probably wrong.

Here's why:

You looked at industry benchmarks. Saw the average is 3.5%. Set your goal to hit that number by Q4.

This is 2020 thinking. It ignores everything that makes your business different.

The problem with universal benchmarks:

Your traffic sources convert differently. Mobile vs desktop show different patterns. New visitors behave differently than returning ones. Your product category has unique conversion barriers.

Industry averages can't account for any of this.

More importantly: your customers don't care about industry benchmarks. They care about whether your site makes it easy to buy.

What research actually shows:

→ Session replays reveal where YOUR customers hesitate. 
→ Customer interviews explain why YOUR visitors don't convert. 
→ Behavioral data identifies YOUR specific friction points.

These insights show what's broken for your business. Industry benchmarks don't.

The modern approach:

Stop optimizing toward someone else's conversion rate. 
Start optimizing what research shows is broken for you.

→ Set goals around fixing specific problems. 
→ Reduce checkout abandonment. 
→ Improve product page engagement. 
→ Fix identified perception gaps. 
→ Remove researched friction points.

Measure improvement against your baseline. Not against what's working for completely different businesses with completely different customers.

What works for other brands won't work for you. 

Your customers are different. 
Your friction points are different. 
Your conversion barriers are unique to your business.

Success means fixing what's actually broken for your customers. Research shows you what that is. Benchmarks don't.

Stop copying industry averages. 
Start researching your actual customers.

Carousel below 👇

Follow for research-first CRO that sets the benchmark.

Stop Setting Conversion Goals Like It's 2020

Every January, ecommerce brands promise THIS will be the year they fix conversion.

By March, nothing's changed.

You're treating CRO like a resolution instead of a system.

January:
"We're going to prioritize testing this year. Build a real optimization program. Finally move the needle on conversion."

March:
Same conversion rate. Same revenue plateau. Same problems you had in December.

What happened?
You didn't build a system. You made a promise.

CRO isn't a resolution you set in January. It's a process that requires:
→ Research identifying what's actually broken
→ Strategic prioritization based on findings
→ Testing that validates solutions
→ Organizational capacity to execute

Without these, "prioritizing CRO" is just a goal with no mechanism.

Most brands fail because they skip the foundation. 

They jump straight to testing without research. 
Launch experiments without strategy. 
Declare winners without proper validation.

Three months later, nothing has moved.

2026 doesn't have to be the same cycle.
Build the system. Research first. Strategy second. Testing third.

Stop making resolutions. Start building process.

Want to build a systematic CRO program? Get a free assessment: https://lnkd.in/ePv4rSyV 

Follow for CRO that's systematic.

Why are you rushing to test in January when you don't know what's broken?

Calendar pressure isn't strategy. 👇

Every brand feels pressure to launch tests in January. 

New year, fresh start, clean slate. Leadership wants velocity. Teams scramble to prove productivity.

But nobody asks: Do we actually know what to test?

The cost is real: wasted months, flat conversion rates, teams losing trust in testing programs, revenue staying stuck while competitors who did research properly pull ahead.

What calendar-driven testing creates:

Random test selection based on opinions
No strategic priorities from customer research
Tests waiting for approvals in Q1 chaos
Symptoms tested, not sources diagnosed

The approach that works:

✅ Use January for customer research (session replays, interviews, behavioral data)
✅ Audit what's actually broken (perception gaps, friction points, trust signals)
✅ Build roadmap based on findings (research-driven priorities)
✅ Start testing in February with clear strategy
✅ Test what you know needs validation, not what the calendar says

Brands that research first, then test strategically, break plateaus. Brands that test because it's January stay stuck.

Testing requires knowing what matters.

—

Follow for CRO that's strategic, not calendar-driven.

Why January Is Actually the WORST Time to Start Testing

Easiest way to start 2026 behind:

Wait until mid-January to plan your Q1 testing roadmap 🫠

But that's still what most ecommerce brands do anyways.

Your competitors aren't waiting. Right now, while you're in holiday mode, they're building the roadmap that puts them ahead in Q1.

Here's what they're doing this week:

1️⃣ Analyzing 2025 data

Not waiting for January planning meetings. They're pulling Black Friday and Cyber Monday results right now. 

Session replays from holiday traffic. 
Customer feedback revealing friction points.

They're identifying what worked, what didn't, and what customer behavior exposed about conversion barriers.

2️⃣ Mapping Q1 opportunities

They're building research-backed test roadmaps based on actual insights. Not random testing. Strategic priorities based on what data shows matters most.

Ask: What did holiday patterns reveal? Where did friction occur? Which perception gaps blocked purchases? What should we test first in Q1?

3️⃣ Securing resources now

Budget conversations are happening this week. Before January chaos. Before Q1 planning mayhem. They're getting testing capacity allocated while calendars are clear.

Now here's the most important part:
The timing advantage compounds:

By January 15th, they're implementing. You're starting to plan.
By February 1st, they're analyzing results. You're getting test approvals.
By March 1st, they're iterating on learnings. You're launching your first test.

This gap doesn't close. It widens.

Here's why December planning works:

Your calendar is actually clear for strategic thinking
2025 data is fresh and actionable
You secure resources before budget gets allocated elsewhere
You start Q1 executing, not organizing

You'll know exactly what to test when Q1 hits and everyone's scrambling.

No more reactive January planning that puts you eight weeks behind.
Just strategic December work that makes January execution possible.
While your competitors waste January planning, you'll already be testing. 💪

Don't start 2026 behind.
Book your strategy session now: https://lnkd.in/ePv4rSyV

"Can't we just use Hotjar?"

Sure. If you want to know WHERE people clicked.

But understanding WHY they didn't convert requires more than a heatmap.

Heatmaps show you what happened. 
Session replays show you how it happened. 
Customer interviews tell you why it happened.

The problem isn't the tool. The problem is thinking one tool gives you the full picture.

Real insight comes from layering multiple data sources:

Heatmaps show users scrolled to the bottom. Were they scanning for shipping costs that weren't there? You won't know without replays and customer feedback.

Analytics shows high engagement on your hero section. Were they confused by your value proposition and re-reading to understand? You need qualitative data to confirm.

You see a drop-off point in your funnel. What perception gap caused it? The numbers alone won't tell you.

You don't need expensive tools. What you need is systematic observation across behavioral, qualitative, and quantitative data.

Hotjar is useful. Just don't mistake activity for understanding.

Follow for CRO that digs deeper than the surface.

If I was leading ecommerce at a fast-growth DTC ecomm brand struggling to increase conversions, here's what I'd do:

What NOT to do:
→ Redesign your site based on "what looks better"
→ Copy what your competitors are doing
→ Test random surface-level page tweaks.
→ Assume more traffic will fix the problem
→ Let your dev team run CRO or make UX decisions without data
→ Run A/B tests without a clear hypothesis
→ Treat design as decoration instead of a trust signal and positioning statement

What TO DO instead:
→ Start with research. Analytics, heatmaps, surveys, usability testing.
→ Find the patterns that lead to purchases, and the patterns that lead to abandonment. Then test solutions that leverage those.
→ Breakdown and segment your funnel across all traffic sources and key audiences. Focus on the biggest drop-off points.
→ Test your pricing, bundles, offers, merchandising, and how users move through your site. Not just buttons and headlines.
→ Make sure your site builds trust in the first 5 seconds
→ Prioritize tests by revenue impact, not ease of execution
→ Treat brand perception and aesthetics as a conversion lever (because it is)

We've seen brands lift conversion rates by 15-40% just by fixing what their research told them was broken. Not by guessing.

And here's the thing most people get wrong:

CRO isn't about tweaking pages.

It's about understanding why people aren't buying. Then fixing that.

Your site doesn't need more best practices. It needs clarity on what's actually holding it back.

Your analytics show 3 minutes on page. Great engagement, right?

Then customer interviews reveal: "I couldn't find what I needed."

They were searching for information. The time reflected confusion.

This is why you need both quantitative and qualitative research.

Analytics show patterns. Interviews reveal context. Combined, they show what's actually broken.

Here are the 3 layers that create complete insights:

1️⃣ Analytics (What's Happening)
Where every strong hypothesis begins.

• Identify where users drop off
• Track conversion patterns
• Measure time and behavior
• Benchmark key metrics
• Reveal the scale of problems

2️⃣ Interviews (Why It's Happening)
Where data meets human context.

• Understand customer confusion points
• Discover what information they need
• Learn what makes them hesitate
• Uncover perception gaps
• Explain the patterns you see

3️⃣ Combined Insights (What to Fix)
Where patterns become actionable solutions.

• Match behavior to motivation
• Connect drop-offs to friction points
• Validate hypotheses with real reasons
• Prioritize based on impact and cause
• Build tests that solve actual problems

Each layer supports the next.

Together, they create a system: measure, understand, fix. Each test compounds the learnings.

📊 See the framework below 👇

Follow for research-driven CRO insights.

Q1 always underperforms. You blame seasonality, post-holiday slump, budget fatigue.

The real reason? You waited until January to fix what was broken in December.

Here's what actually happens:

✅ December:

Your site has conversion problems. Friction points blocking purchases. Perception gaps creating hesitation. Trust signals missing at checkout.

You know this. But you're busy with holiday campaigns. "We'll fix it in January."

✅ January:

You finally start planning. Schedule kickoff meetings. Discuss priorities. Begin research to identify what's broken.

Three weeks gone. Q1 is already 25% over. You haven't launched a single test.

✅ February:

Research is complete. You know what needs fixing. Now you're building tests. Getting approvals. Coordinating with dev.

Another three weeks. Q1 is half over. Still no tests live.

✅ March:

First tests launch. You're finally executing. But you needed 4-6 weeks to reach statistical significance.

Q1 ends before you have results.

This is why Q1 underperforms. You spent the entire quarter catching up.

The brands that win Q1 did the work in Q4.

They researched what was broken in December. 
Built strategic roadmaps before January. 
Secured resources while calendars were clear.

January 2nd: tests went live. 
February: analyzing results. 
March: iterating on learnings.

Same quarter. Different timeline. Better results.

Q1 underperforms when you treat December like downtime and January like planning season.

Q1 succeeds when you do strategic work in Q4 that enables execution in Q1.
The pattern is predictable. 

The fix is simple: stop waiting until January to start fixing what's broken.

Do the research in Q4. Build the roadmap in December. Execute in Q1.

See what’s breaking your Q1 before January hits: 
https://lnkd.in/ePv4rSyV

Why are you building your Q1 testing roadmap around a calendar instead of research?

January = quick wins. February = data gathering. March = strategic tests.

This is how most brands plan. It's also why most testing programs fail.

Generic timelines ignore what's unique about your business. 

Your friction points. 
Your organizational capacity. 
Your actual conversion barriers.

Here's what works instead:

✅ Start with research.

Session replays show where your customers hesitate. 
Customer interviews reveal your friction points. 
Analytics identifies your drop-off patterns.

Not industry benchmarks. Not best practices. Your data.

✅ Then prioritize strategically.

Which friction point affects the most customers? 
Which fix drives the highest revenue impact? 
Can your team actually execute this with current resources?

Match tests to what you can realistically run. Prioritize based on impact, not arbitrary monthly themes.

✅ Then test properly.

Run tests backed by research insights. 
Wait for statistical significance. 
Measure primary conversion metrics. 
Document what you learn.

Your Q1 roadmap should be built on what research shows is broken. Not on what month it happens to be.

The brands that win don't follow templates. They build roadmaps based on reality.

Research identifies what's broken. Strategic thinking prioritizes solutions. Testing validates what works.

Build your roadmap around data, not dates.

Follow for CRO that's research-driven.

Your test hit 95% confidence early.

Leadership is celebrating. You're looking at the data thinking "this seems fast."

Trust that instinct.

Early data shows 95% confidence. The variation is winning. You implement it.

A few weeks later: Conversion is down. The "winner" isn't winning anymore.

What happened? Early data lied.

95% confidence doesn't mean the test is done. It means you have statistical confidence in the current pattern. But patterns shift as sample size grows.

Early data often captures incomplete traffic patterns and behavior that doesn't represent your actual customer base.

The snapshot looked decisive. But it wasn't the full picture.

This corrupts testing programs. You implement changes based on incomplete data. Those changes become your baseline. Future tests build on broken assumptions. The error compounds.

The fix: Run tests to proper completion.

Sufficient sample size AND sufficient time. Not "until we hit 95%." Until you have enough conversions to represent actual customer behavior.

Early confidence is tempting. But testing integrity requires patience.

Wait for the full picture. Your testing program depends on it.

Follow for CRO that values accuracy over speed.

Why did your conversion rate go up, but revenue stay flat?

Because you optimized for average customers and lost your best ones.

High-value customers behave differently than quick buyers. 

They spend more time researching. 
They need more depth. 
They look for different proof points.

Your "optimized" site might remove friction for quick purchases. But it can also remove the information depth that serious buyers need.

What research reveals:

Session replays show different segments behaving differently. They scroll to different sections. Click different elements. Abandon at different points.

Customer interviews reveal why. High-intent buyers need more information. Quick buyers want fast checkout. Different needs entirely.

Average metrics hide this. When you optimize for average conversion rate, you miss what specific segments actually need.

The fix:

Segment your data. 
Analyze high-value customer behavior separately. 
Interview them specifically. 
Understand what friction they face.

Then optimize for the customers who matter most to your revenue.

Research reveals these patterns. Analytics alone won't show you that different segments need different experiences.

Follow for CRO insights that go beyond averages.

Edie Parker sells turntables inside sticks of butter.

How do you optimize conversion for that?

You don't start with the product page. You start with community.

Abby Fallacaro, Senior Manager of Ecommerce at Edie Parker, explained their approach:

"Once they trust us through building that community, they're willing to trade their hard-earned dollars for kind of wacky products. For someone to fully embrace our dream world, they have to be bought into the community and feel like they're a part of something."

This is conversion optimization most brands miss.

When your product is unconventional, conversion isn't about removing checkout friction. It's about building enough trust that the product makes sense.

Edie Parker's customers don't just buy products. They buy into a world. An identity.
The trust signals that matter aren't "free shipping" or "30-day returns." They're "you belong here" and "this is for people like you."

Why research matters: Session replays won't tell you customers need community trust before buying a butter stick turntable. Customer interviews will.

Why context matters: What works for commodity products won't work for unconventional ones. The friction points are completely different.

Conversion optimization looks different for every brand. Research reveals what trust signals your specific customers need. For Edie Parker, it's community. For your brand, it's something else.

Don't optimize based on what works for others. Optimize based on what your customers actually need.

Follow for CRO insights from brands doing it differently.

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Jon Blair

Raphael Paulin-Daigle

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taplio

The Battle

Jon Blair

Raphael Paulin-Daigle

Followers

Posts

Engagements

Likes

Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Jon Blair's LinkedIn Performance

Performance ScoreRaphael Paulin-Daigle's LinkedIn Performance

Ready to grow your LinkedIn presence?

Performance ScoreJon Blair's LinkedIn Performance